Tracking the spread of the virus
Increasingly frustrated health officials say they are prepared to take more aggressive measures to track and contain people with COVID-19 as the number of sick and dead continues to soar.
And that could involve employing some of the digital and mobile strategies seen in countries including Singapore and South Korea where suppression has been more successful, they suggest with caveats.
All of this is under review by various public health bodies, but a York University expert in infectious disease modelling warns that delayed action risks allowing the virus to continue its exponential growth, and force even more intense physical distancing measures.
That may be the painful lesson Canada needs to learn, said Jianhong Wu, an experienced modeller who has led multiple national projects on SARS, pandemic influenza, and immunization evaluation.
“Every country has had to go through this first before they learned how serious it is,” said Wu, a distinguished research professor whose work includes analysis of epidemic data in Wuhan, China, where the virus was first detected late last year.
The argument for more stringent contact tracing was laid bare in a directive from
Ontario’s chief medical officer of health this week. Dr. David Williams instructed the province’s public health units to use their authority to isolate COVID19 cases and anyone with whom those infected people came into close contact.
Williams reiterated that in a press conference, noting the social contacts of those infected must also be traced and contained if we’re ever to bring the virus to heel.
“Even if we were able to flatten the curve, the real grunt work of public health really then kicks into gear even more,” explained Williams, referring to the famous line graph that depicts the exponential rise in cases that would result without interventions.
“(With) all these cases you’re going to have to do a lot more contacting, more phone calling, more investigating.”
Williams said his office is looking at how to add more staff, volunteers and the use of technology towards this effort.
That work will have to persist through the spring and summer in order to make sure infections don’t spark “flare-ups.”
“We’re looking at quickly how to ramp that up – not only for today, but tomorrow and in the future, because this is going to be very important in the days and weeks going ahead,” said Williams.
It’s “very much intensive” work, he added, and that’s where technology can help.
Whether that includes the use of mobile tracking tools to keep tabs on the infected is an open question, and one he’s not ready to rule out.
“We have many proposals coming in, and nothing is being rejected outright,” said Williams.
Canada’s biggest hurdle to tech-assisted tracking is public and political aversion to measures that threaten individual privacy, said Wu, but he argued public safety concerns should trump those worries here.
For now, Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott has suggested the emphasis continues to be on people power. She said Thursday that she hoped medical students can help carry that load.
Such a strategy is already in use in Alberta, where approximately 300 University of Calgary medical students have bolstered that province’s ability to contact the infected and make sure they and their contacts self-isolate.