Atlantic provinces hope low population density lessens load

HALIFAX

Being a small East Coast province in the pandemic is a double-edged sword: there are fewer critically ill patients, but the supply of hospital beds is limited if the worst-case scenario materializes.

“We will have fewer beds, but we will have a lower population density too,” said Dr. Ward Patrick, the head of critical care at the Nova Scotia Health Authority — the biggest health agency in Atlantic Canada.

The 60-year-old veteran of intensive care medicine said in an interview his teams have access to an existing supply of 120 intensive care beds provincewide — each equipped with ventilators and staffed by specialized health workers.

In addition, the province’s intensive care units have been emptied by 50 per cent to prepare for COVID-19 patients, and Patrick says Nova Scotia could surge to over 200 intensive care beds as the pandemic progresses.

However, he also acknowledged there are “wild cards,” ranging from unanticipated jumps in infections to finding replacements for sick staff.

His health authority has created scenarios where 7,000 of its 23,400 staff are off due to self-isolation or illness, and Patrick said he’s aware of estimates that could go higher.

Janet Hazelton, the president of the Nova Scotia Nurses’ Union, said she believes the Atlantic provinces could face some of Canada’s biggest staffing issues.

“We don’t have enough that we can move them all over, as in some of the biggest provinces,” she said during an interview.

An outbreak from two gatherings at a funeral home last month in St. John’s, N.L. — which has generated nearly three quarters of the province’s 195 infections — illustrates another key risk when ICU beds are at a premium.

Gilles Lanteigne, the chief executive of the Vitalite Health Network in New Brunswick — which serves the province’s francophone population — says intense outbreaks in one location are the most worrying scenario for smaller health agencies like the one he oversees.

“The average age of our population is very old, and we have some regions where people are not as healthy when compared to the average region in the country,” he said in a telephone interview.

“Clustering, if that ever happens ... it could cause almost a disaster. It could increase significantly the cases.”