Ontario predicts COVID-19 health system strain; Quebec mulls school closures
New projections suggest Ontario’s surging COVID-19 caseload is likely to strain its health-care system to the point where surgeries will be cancelled and Quebec’s premier is raising the possibility of school closures around the holidays.
Those were two major developments Thursday as the situation with the stubborn pandemic darkened on several fronts across Canada.
“Key indicators of the pandemic continue to worsen,” said Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of Ontario’s COVID-19 science advisory table.
The latest modelling suggests that a five per cent virus growth rate, which Brown called a “slightly optimistic” scenario, would put Ontario on track for 6,500 new cases a day by mid-December. Under a three per cent growth rate, it would be 2,500 cases daily.
Just two weeks ago, it had been predicted that new daily infections would hold steady between 800 and 1,200 for a while.
Ontario reported a record-breaking 1,575 new infections Thursday, along with 18 more deaths.
Brown said that under any of the latest projected scenarios, intensive care occupancy would exceed the key threshold of 150 beds across the province.
“It’s that point at which we need to start cancelling planned surgeries and we can no longer deliver the full slate of planned care right now,” he said.
The Ontario Medical Association, which represents tens of thousands of physicians, urged the provincial government to lower thresholds that determine when restrictions should be tightened — by as much as 50 per cent in some cases.
The plea followed a Toronto Star reported that the provincial government ignored the advice of its own public health agency in designing the tiered and colour-coded alerts introduced last week.
Premier Doug Ford said Thursday the government’s plan had the blessing of the province’s top doctor and that the “balanced” approach takes mental health and the economy into account.
“It’s easy for people to say, ‘Just shut everything down’ when they’re guaranteed a paycheque every single week,” he said.
Quebec reported 1,365 new COVID19 cases and 42 more deaths, including nine in 24 hours.
Premier Francois Legault said he wass considering temporarily closing schools to reduce COVID-19 transmission.
Legault said 1,174 classrooms across the province are currently closed, but most alarming was that 324 of them had been shut in the last two days.
“It remains the last solution, but currently, when one looks at the situation, we should not exclude any solution,” he said in Quebec City.
In Manitoba, the province entered the first day of widespread restrictions meant to stem steadily increasing COVID-19 cases.
That province has the biggest percapita caseload of active infections in Canada and reported nine new deaths on Thursday, matching the record for fatalities set only a day earlier.
Gatherings are now limited to five people, in-person religious services are cancelled and non-essential stores and restaurants can only offer curbside pickup or delivery. Bars, museums and theatres are closed and recreational activities are suspended. Schools remain open.