Sask. doctors told cases could double by early December

Health experts have warned doctors in Saskatchewan that COVID-19 cases could climb to more than 10,000 by early next month.

The Ministry of Health on Friday released a presentation delivered to physicians at a townhall meeting the night before about the virus’s current spread and possible trajectory.

Information updated to Nov. 20 indicates that, based on the recent average rise in positive tests, the caseload could hit 10,000 in the first week of December if there is no further intervention.

The province on Friday reported 329 new cases for a total of more than 7,600 infections since the pandemic arrived in March. There were more than 3,200 active cases - more than 1,000 of them in and around Saskatoon.

There were four new deaths of individuals 70 or older, bringing the province’s death toll from the pandemic to 44. Officials said 111 people were in hospital, with 16 of them receiving intensive care.

The data shown to doctors states that as of Monday the number of active cases and hospitalizations had gone up 400 per cent in the last 30 days.

It forecasts that in four to six months, acute care demand for

COVID-19 patients could account for half of all available beds and the need for intensive care could be five times total capacity.

“These results should be interpreted with extreme caution and may point to the need to go further with public health restrictions,” Dr. Jenny Basran, senior medical information officer for the Saskatchewan Health Authority, said in a statement.

“The SHA is currently working on updates to further validate this data and incorporate the projected impact of the latest public health measures put in place this week. We expect to be able to share more information by the end of next week.”