Steep climate-change costs predicted
Big-name report urges businesses to push for cuts in emissions
NEW YORK — Climate change is likely to exactenormous costs on U.S. regional economies in lost property, reduced industrial output and more deaths, says a report backed by three leading American business veterans.
The report, released Tuesday, is designed to convince businesses to factor in the cost of climate change in their long-term decisions and to push for reductions in emissions blamed for heating the planet.
It was commissioned by the Risky Business Project, which describes itself as non-partisan. It’s chaired by former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, former treasury secretary Henry Paulson and Thomas Steyer, a former hedge-fund manager.
“If we act immediately, ■ we can still avoid most of the worst impacts of climate change and significantly reduce the odds of catastrophic outcomes,” Paulson said.
Among the predictions: Coastal property worth $66 billion to $106 billion U.S. is likely to be below sea level by 2050; labour productivity of outdoor workers could fall by three per cent as extremely hot days become more frequent; and demand for air conditioning will require more power plants at a cost to electricity customers of up to $12 billion per year.
“Every year that goes by without a comprehensive public and private sector response to climate change is a year that locks in future climate events that will have a far more devastating effect on our local, regional, and na- tional economies,” warn the report’s authors.
The report’s analysis and calculations are the work of the Rhodium Group, an economic research firm, and Risk Management Solutions, a catastrophe-modelling company that works for insurance companies and other businesses. It was paid for by the philanthropic foundations of Bloomberg, Paulson and Steyer, among others.
The report analyzes the impacts of climate change by region to better show how climate change affects the businesses and industries that drive each region’s economy.
The Northeast will likely be most affected by sea-level rise, which will cost an additional $6 billion to $9 billion U.S. in property loss each year.
The Southeast will likely be affected both by sea-level rise and high temperatures. The region, which has averaged eight days above 35 C each year, will likely see 17 to 52 more of these days by mid-century and up to four months of them by the end of the century. This could lead to 11,000 to 36,000 additional deaths per year.
Higher temperatures will reduce Midwest crop yields by 19 per cent by mid-century and by 63 per cent by the end of the century.
The Southwest will see an extra month above 35 C by 2050, leading to more droughts and wildfires.
The report does not calculate the cost of these droughts or wildfires, or many other possible costs, such as the loss of unique ecosystems and species and the possible compounding effects of extreme weather conditions. Nor does it calculate some of the ways economies could adapt to the changing climate and reduce the costs of climate change.
“There’s a whole litany of things not calculated in the assessment,” said Gary Yohe, an economics and environmental studies professor at Wesleyan University and vice-chair of the National Climate Assessment, a U.S. government project set up to study the effects of climate change. Yohe was not part of the Risky Business Project report, but he was asked to review it.
Still, he said, “The general conclusions are right on the money.”
While other groups have also attempted to calculate the financial impacts of climate change around the world, this report is notable because of the business and financial experience of the people behind it, he said.
Beyond the three co-chairs, the members of the group’s risk committee include former treasury secretary Robert Rubin, former Cargill CEO Gregory Page, and George Shultz, former treasury secretary and secretary of state.
“These are people who have managed risk all their lives and have made an enormous amount of money doing so,” Yohe said.