Who’s No. 1?
WITH NO CLEAR-CUT FAVOURITE, team needs, positional bias will probably determine top four picks
Most NHL drafts come with storylines.
In 1999, we had the Twin Killing with brothers Henrik and Daniel Sedin winding up with the Vancouver Canucks in some great wheeling and dealing by former general manager Brian Burke. In 2010, there was the months-long Taylor (Hall) vs. Tyler (Seguin) soap opera as to who was No. 1. In 2012, it was the Fail for Nail (Yakupov) draft campaign, which the Edmonton Oilers certainly did.
And this year, the Fab Four — the two Sams, Bennett and Reinhart, book-ending another centre, Neon Leon Draisaitl, and a man-boy, defenceman Aaron Ekblad, who’d have no trouble growing one of those lumberjack playoff beards despite being only 18.
Are they “franchise-defining players,” to use TSN scouting guru and former NHL GM Craig Button’s words? No. They are excellent kids, but there’s no Steven Stamkos here. No Drew Doughty. No Patrick Kane. Or farther back, no Sidney Crosby nor Mario Lemieux.
Button steadfastly says if supernova centres Connor McDavid (Erie Otters) and Jack Eichel (U.S. development program) were in this year’s draft rather than eligible in 2015, they would go 1-2, ahead of Bennett (Kingston Frontenacs), Reinhart (Kootenay Ice), Ekblad (Barrie Colts) and Draisaitl (Prince Albert Raiders). That’s not to downgrade Bennett and Co., it’s just there are no clear-cut ideas on which teenager is the best. It’s personal preference, or positional bias, as it was in 1990 when Owen Nolan, Petr Nedved, Keith Primeau and Mike Ricci were the first four names called.
All four forwards had very productive NHL careers, but none is going to be a Hall of Famer.
“It’s a challenging time for the teams, but it’s one they relish. This is what it’s all about. There’s no easy way to define or separate the top four or five kids,” said NHL Central Scouting head Dan Marr. “The top end will be interesting.”
Three Canadian teams will have their draft tables closest to the stage at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia this weekend. It’s always five rows of six tables across — with the best teams farthest away. The Oilers have the thirdoverall pick — four times in the last five years they’ve been in the first row. The Calgary Flames are at No. 4, Vancouver Canucks No. 6, Toronto Maple Leafs No. 8 and Winnipeg Jets No. 9, so that’s five Canadian teams picking early.
If Florida keeps the first pick, they’ll probably take Ekblad, who would be the first Canadian defenceman to go No. 1 since Chris Phillips 18 years ago (Ottawa). The Panthers have a cadre of young centres. Buffalo, selecting second, has scouted Reinhart, but also loves Bennett’s never-say-die attitude. Edmonton may be leaning more to a centre with young de- fenders Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom and Martin Marincin in the organization, and it might be the 6-foot-2, 209-pound Draisaitl.
Bennett is competitive but took heat because he couldn’t do one chin pull-up at the NHL Combine — something Wayne Gretzky, notorious for his lack of interest in pushups in the 1980s, laughed off.
“Thank goodness they didn’t go by that in the early days (when he was a junior),” said No. 99.
Reinhart, whose defenceman/ brother Griffin was the fourthoverall selection in 2012 by the New York Islanders, has been a captain throughout his junior days, showing his leadership skills.
Draisaitl is a wonderful playmaker and he’s strong, too. He did 13 bench-presses of 150 pounds at the NHL combine.
One plus with the talent available: “It’s really hard to find a centreman who can play in the top two NHL lines and in this draft, there’s three of them in the top four guys,” said Button.
The top four seem better than the rest in most scouts’ eyes, but not everybody thinks that.
“Dale Tallon (Florida GM) doesn’t see why (Halifax’s Danish winger Nikolaj) Ehlers and (Swedish forward William) Nylander shouldn’t be in the discussion with the other four guys. His words, not mine,” said Button. “Michael Dal Colle (Oshawa) and Nick Ritchie (Peterborough) also figure in there somehow. Bigger wingers who can score.”
This draft could be like 2006, when there was one defenceman, Erik Johnson, and three centres rated in the top four. “Johnson went first, Jordan Staal second, then we had Jonathan Toews at No. 3 and Nicklas Backstrom at No. 4. Who knows with drafts? Anze Kopitar went 11th in 2005, Crosby’s draft. Eleventh? There’s no question today that Kopitar is a way better player than Bobby Ryan who went No. 2 that year and Jack Johnson who went No. 3,” said Button.
“This is one of those drafts where outside of the top six or seven, teams are going to be all over the map. A player like Robby Fabbri (Guelph) could go in the top 10 or late in the first round ... in every draft there’s players who will go later, who need patience.
“This year there’s an unbelievable kid defenceman Travis Sanheim (Calgary Hitmen). He reminds me of Ryan McDonagh (New York Rangers) at the same age. There’s some Europeans to watch for later, like Swedish centre Adrian Kempe or a Czech winger David Pastrnak.
“What we know from past drafts is there’s going to be six to eight kids who go in the first round who won’t have any NHL career of any magnitude. Even a great draft crop like 2003, there was Hugh Jessiman (no NHL games, Rangers pick at No. 12), Anthony Stewart, Shawn Belle, heck Andrei Kostitsyn went 10th overall to Montreal. Ouch. Nikolai Zherdev went fourth overall (Columbus) How good was his career?” said Button.