Long campaign boils down to Gentle Justin vs. Hardball Harper
The neverendum election campaign is almost over — and it may just be a Harperendum.
It’s been an unpredictable, exciting, brutal 78- day campaign — with every party leading for one leg of the race. There have been enough polls to interview every last Canadian five times — from Abacus, Forum and Leger through Nanos, Ekos, Ipsos and Nostradamus.
Even Dr. Josh is exhausted and lying on his own couch — but he’s still ready to take your questions. So fire away:
Dear Dr. Josh: How the heck did Justin Trudeau go from being a practical joke at the start of the campaign to practically- ournext-PM- say- the- pollsters. — Aghast in Alberta Dear Aghast: Whether he wins the election or not, Trudeau has won the campaign by bringing the long- dead Liberals back to life.
He started out dismissed as a pretty face, but Harper’s endless election campaign gave Trudeau time to go to Electoral College and gain his footing ... Justin time.
He ran a smart NDP- like campaign, while the NDP ran a Liberal one. He surprised us all in the debates by out- debating two seasoned debaters — and astonishingly, he’s giving a dramatic Hollywood finish to a Canadian election.
But he had one unfair advantage all along: charisma: that inexplicable mix of charm, magnetism and star- power that makes people like you.
Mayor Coderre has plenty of it, while Premier Couillard doesn’t. Former Liberal leaders Michael Ignatieff, Stéphane Dion and Paul Martin didn’t have a tenth as much together as Jean Chrétien did.
Barack Obama and Bill Clinton ooze it and judging from last week’s Democratic Party debate Hillary Clinton may finally have found it.
Thomas Mulcair had plenty in Parliament, but nowhere near enough in the TV debates — where his strangely shifting personality betrayed him. Stephen Harper has never even heard of it, but he had the brains, belief and backbone to make up for it.
In Canada the word “charisma” was invented in 1968 by Pierre Elliott Trudeau who had it in spades — and it turns out to be genetic. His son Justin is a natural rock star politician who never takes a bad photo — even the one in Conservative attack ads is bet- ter than Harper’s own PR photo.
In many ways Justin is Stephen Harper’s opposite. He’s idealistic, impulsive and sometimes naive, but never cynical. He’s soft and sensitive while Harper’s hard as rock. He’s open, not secretive, consults rather than rules and he obviously loves people while Harper seems allergic to them.
He’s Gentle Justin not Hardball Harper, at least while he’s still an MP — not a PM, surrounded by a backroom brothel of lobbyists.
Dear Dr. Josh: I thought this election would be about the economy, security and refugees — but I worry it’s become a referendum on the niqab. — Fearful in Quebec Dear Fearful: The niqab threw a dark veil over the campaign for a week, when it seemed the entire election would turn on it. The niquab kneecapped Thomas Mulcair who had his finest, noblest moment standing by his principles in the second French debate — defending women’s right to wear things we hate.
But it probably cost Mulcair Quebec — and the election — as polls show his orange wave suddenly hit a red wall.
The niqab also resuscitated Stephen Harper, who found a way to attract voters who dislike veiled faces even more than they do his. He’s become a political Darth Vader — appealing to our dark fears about foreigners, strange costumes, customs and other barbaric practices.
But ultimately the niqab has backfired as a tactic. While Harper gained some new voters in Quebec, he utterly destroyed the NDP in the polls, knocking them pretty much out of the race.
That’s created the recent Liberal surge as the official anyone-but- Harper Party, with many former NDP- lovers gritting their teeth to vote for the Grits.
Our super smart PM may finally have outsmarted himself.
So Dr. Josh: How can my vote make a difference? — Strategizing in Scarborough Dear Strategic: Given Harper’s hardball knack for winning I wouldn’t be shocked if a previously unknown army of niqab-hating, Harper- lovers comes out to vote him back into office Monday — after keeping their opinion as secret from pollsters as Harper keeps everything.
If so it will be “Time For No Change.”
If it’s somehow a Trudeau majority, we’ll get to see a Prime Minister- on- training wheels, but it’ll probably be a Liberal- NDP partnership that outvotes Harper and lasts as long as it suits both parties.
What happens if the NDP surprises us and ends up tied with the Liberals? Then, according to ancient Canadian parliamentary custom the winners flip a puck to determine the new Prime Minister — and the losers head for the penalty box.
Whatever happens this looks to be a two- part election — and it probably won’t be very long before we’re all having our polls taken again.