LIBERALS ON THE REBOUND
The prospect of Quebec’s return to influence in Ottawa is likely to help Trudeau — sooner or later
With Quebecers divided heading into Monday’s federal election, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is still looking to set himself apart from the under- performing pack. One good way to do so would be to pitch a brand of inoffensive Liberal federalism, the likes of which this province hasn’t embraced federally in a decade and a half.
Contrary to popular belief, Quebecers do not intuitively reject federalism and everything associated with it.
During the 2014 provincial campaign, Premier Philippe Couillard was blasted by opponents for daring to suggest that workers in Quebec could benefit from learning English. Promoting bilingualism is heresy to many nationalists, even to those who speak English fluently. In aggressively breaking that taboo, Couillard was reinforcing his own established federalist credentials.
The implications of such an idea would be “catastrophic,” said former Péquiste premier Pauline Marois. “It’s incredible to hear Mr. Couillard refuse to defend the French language,” added Coalition Avenir Québec Leader François Legault. Even ostensibly tolerant Québec solidaire Leader Françoise David confronted Couillard on his supposed lack of concern for the language during a subsequent debate.
The Quebec Liberal leader didn’t back down; instead, in the days that followed, he boldly doubled down.
“It’s a great advantage for anyone to be bilingual,” Couillard said — it bears repeating, on the campaign trail.
“This is something the péquistes don’t want me to say, but I’ll say it again: There’s not a single parent in Quebec that doesn’t hope for their kids to be bilingual. It’s such a fantastic asset in life.”
Members of Quebec’s disproportionately nationalist commentariat predicted the stance would be disastrous for Couillard’s campaign. He went on win the most seats of any government in over a decade ( granted, with plenty of help from a disorganized and offensive PQ, but the language stance had no perceivable effect).
On Monday, Trudeau may not be able to match the successes of Chrétien, Mulroney or his father in Quebec. But he and his party arguably stand to gain the most next time around — which could be just around the corner.
Quebecers were right to put the Liberal Party of Canada in the doghouse for a solid decade. Worse than the waste of tens of millions of dollars ( including $ 14 million for a toothless commission; Quebecers are unfortunately accustomed to massive waste) was the assumption that slick advertising and free flags would help the No side win the 1995 referendum. If anything, the No won in spite of them.
Recent polls suggest that Liberals are finally on the rebound in Quebec; perhaps a sign that the Sponsorship scars are fading ( although the resignation of former adviser Dan Gagnier over his private interests is a step back and a reminder of past impropriety).
If Trudeau is to eventually win over Quebecers, he could benefit from further emphasizing his cosmopolitan stance on bilingualism; most parents and essentially all post- boomer Quebecers recognize the social and economic importance of bilingualism or multilingualism.
More specifically, Trudeau would be wise to pitch a co- operative yet decentralized federalism to contrast with Chrétien’s aggressive approach and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper’s distance. Harper was wise to keep an arm’s length from Quebec affairs; Conservatives are out of their depth in Quebec. Trudeau should consider this strategy ’s success while recognizing that Liberal policies have the potential to take him much, much farther.
With Quebecers bracing for years of provincial belt- tightening, the federal Liberals could gain favour with some overdue investment. But more than some new projects or a toll- free Champlain Bridge, Trudeau’s big ticket to success could be the prospect of Quebec’s return to influence in Ottawa.
If Liberals manage to form a government, his challenge will be to do what the NDP could not: craft a pan- Canadian pitch that is coherent in both official languages.