THE AUTOBOTS ARE COMING
Ford leapfrogs its competitors
So, now we know when: 2021. Five short years from now. That’s when we will have little autobots driving around completely autonomously. The Society of Automotive Engineers calls it Level 4 autonomy, essentially a car that drives itself with absolutely no intervention from humans needed, even in emergencies. Or wanted, in fact, since the hightech little runabouts will have no steering wheels or brake pedals.
The who, however, is a bigger surprise. In announcing Dearborn’s intentions, CEO Mark Fields vaulted Ford ahead of perennial news leaders Google and Uber in the rush toward our seemingly inevitable driverless future.
Its announcement, however, opened up more questions than it answered. To wit:
Q Does this mean Ford will be first with a fully autonomous automobile?
A Probably. Both Google and Uber are coding like crazy to create completely self-driving software. Indeed, Google already professes it is ready for prime time, with only regulation and conservative policies — things like, you know, safety considerations — holding it back.
The problem is that, while you and I might think all this autonomous technology is incredibly futuristic, the real hard part of building a self-driving car — at least for Uber or Google — is building the car. Neither company has the infrastructure, manpower or, at least currently, the know-how to engineer and build a world-class automobile from scratch.
They could learn — or buy — that ability, but it would be a stretch to think they can do it in five years. They may be able to pump out a small batch of selfdriving runabouts, but I suspect Ford is now the company to beat for mass production of Level 4 autonomous cars.
Q What effect will this have on other automakers?
A So far, with the exception of Volvo (whose recent XC90-based pairing with Uber still requires a driver behind the wheel), traditional automakers have shied away from any promise of producing fully autonomous vehicles. Whether worried about the legal quagmire of responsibility for accidents caused by driverless cars or worried their technology isn’t ready for the open road, virtually all major manufacturers have limited their promises to Level 2 and 3 self-driving vehicles. They will have many of the features of autonomy, but always with a human ready to take control in emergencies.
Ford has upset that apple cart by skipping right from the tentative steering-wheel intrusions of current lane-keeping assist systems all the way to yanking the steering wheel right out of the car.
This radical departure from automaker conservatism will likely force other automakers to follow suit. Don’t be surprised if we see both Google and Uber sign some kind of co-operative manufacturing agreements with major automakers soon.
Q Why Ford? A Well, Mr. Fields would surely tell you that his company is the most high-tech of all the major automakers.
On the other hand, this forward thinking may just be good, oldfashioned financial expedience. Ford’s passenger cars are, shall we say, lagging. While there are plenty of them and even a few truly remarkable products, Ford, more than almost any other marque, relies on trucks — specifically, its F-150 — to keep it profitable.
Ford’s passenger cars need a leg up on their competition. The hype of self-driving may just give them the relevance needed.
Q Why only sell them to ride-sharing companies?
A Well, although Level 4 autonomy requires no driver, there can still be limitations. Autonomous automobiles used in ride sharing may be limited in the speeds allowed, applicable driving conditions and even routes permissible as governments gradually roll out automotive autonomy.
Hooking up with ride-hailing companies also (partially) kicks the contentious problem of legal responsibility and insurance liability farther down the road. With no steering wheel or pedals there is no possible way to attribute fault to a human. So, some form of blanket product liability will be needed to cover the calamities involving computerized cars. The next bone of contention to look for, therefore, is who will accept the responsibility for these selfdriving, ride-sharing autobots.
Will product liability be something the automaker includes in the purchase agreement with these ride-hailing companies? Will Ford instead contend that these self-drivers are in the care and control of Uber and, therefore Uber’s responsibility? Or will both be so eager to take that unreliable driver out of the equation that they will share the liability? Look for some interesting legal wrangling before totally self-driving cars hit the road.
Q What does this mean for the design of cars?
A Forget the introduction of George Jetson-like exteriors. We humans may be drawn to advanced technology like junkies to hillbilly heroin, but when it comes to style, we are Stephen Harper-like conservative. Automotive interiors, on the other hand, now devoid of brake pedal and steering wheel, are likely to see a rapid — and radical — shift away from the traditional two rows of seats. Mercedes-Benz has already shown a concept, the F 015, that has all four passengers facing inward, like a first-class train cabin.
Phantasmagorical or no, Ford’s development of Level 4 autonomous vehicles is a paradigm shift, one that will have all manner of ramifications.
We all knew it was coming. I suspect, however, that few of us thought it would happen so soon.