RISE OF THE F-WORD
Only the Liberals, it seems, want to talk up the prospect of another referendum — because they stand to score political points in the current climate. But prevailing winds can quickly shift, Philip Authier writes, and for federalists, complacency is not a
Don’t look now, but federalism appears to be in vogue in Quebec these days. The CAQ’s François Legault says he’s a proud Canadian, former PQ leader Lucien Bouchard is urging realism in politics, while current leader Jean-François Lisée wants to put off talk of another referendum in the face of sobering poll numbers. Philip Authier examines the shifting political winds.
QUEBEC Can it be? Federalism seems to be in vogue in Quebec. Or at least, the alternative has fallen out of fashion.
Let’s start with François Legault. Last weekend, the leader of Coalition Avenir Québec couldn’t quite bring himself to utter the F-word at the party’s policy convention in Drummondville. But there was no mistaking where he stood.
“I am proud to be Canadian,” declared Legault, a former Parti Québécois cabinet minister. “I am proud of what we built.”
He added: “Canada, it started in Quebec. It’s the French who were there at the start.”
Granted, Legault was already on record as saying he would vote No if another referendum on sovereignty were to take place.
Yet the CAQ’s decision to formally accept the concept of federal belonging into its political vision — it is now inscribed in Article 1 of its program — marks a giant step in the party’s sinuous evolution.
In the 2012 election, the party — founded five years ago as a rainbow coalition of federalists, sovereignists and soft nationalists — tried to campaign without a position on the question of national unity.
Now, the CAQ is playing both the nationalist and federalist cards at the same time, a formula used successfully by Quebec politicians in the past as a way of appealing to fence-sitters.
The nationalist side of the CAQ says if elected it would call on Ottawa to surrender sweeping powers over culture, the selection of immigrants (with the idea of reducing the number admitted) and funding for infrastructure projects. It would also play identity politics to the hilt.
But the other side of its program is clearer than ever — and decidedly federalist.
Article 1 reads: “The Coalition Avenir Québec is a modern nationalist party whose primary objective is to ensure the development and the prosperity of Quebec as a nation within Canada, while defending proudly its autonomy, its values and culture.”
Reaction from opponents was swift. On Monday, Parti Québécois MNA Stéphane Bergeron offered a lifeline to caquistes who may be disillusioned with the party’s newly stated vision.
“Those people need to know they are welcome in the PQ,” Bergeron told Le Devoir.
That day, Bergeron unveiled a PQ-concocted program designed to take the shine off celebrations marking the 150th anniversary of confederation in 2017. The PQ calls its initiative “L’Autre 150.”
Legault wants to make it clear he’s done with that kind of policy. The PQ’s option, he believes, is going nowhere, and he wants anglophones to know they should feel safe about joining his party.
The number of minority-group members in the CAQ has ebbed and flowed over the years, with some scared off by Legault’s past separatist leanings.
Now the party believes it has removed a significant obstacle. In a speech to the convention, Legault appealed for trust.
“From now on you have a real choice,” he said, switching to English. “If you wish Quebec to flourish within Canada, if you have had enough of being stuck with the Liberal Party that is worn out, if you are tired of being taken for granted, you now have another option. Join us.”
As it happened, one of the first to comment on Legault’s shift was his old boss, former PQ leader Lucien Bouchard, who recruited the one-time airline executive into politics in 1998.
On Monday, during a RadioCanada interview tied to the launch of Legacy, a new book on the history of French Canadians, Bouchard gave his blessing of sorts to Legault’s approach.
“The population decided that we live in a federation,” Bouchard said. “I don’t see a referendum on the horizon which could modify this decision.
“Politics is realism too,” he added. “We can have ideals, but short of making that ideal happen, we have to adjust to the concrete situation.”
Even the PQ has set aside talk of another referendum — or has been trying to — in the lead-up to the 2018 provincial election.
Though sovereignty remains the party’s ultimate goal, new leader Jean-François Lisée is promising not to hold a referendum before 2022.
In the meantime, Lisée is appealing to federalists and minorities to give the PQ a chance. In a recent interview, he claimed 40 per cent of Quebecers who usually vote Liberal are dissatisfied, and said many will be tempted to shop around.
The mood among federalists and minorities, however, can only be described as skeptical.
Support among non francophones for the CAQ sits at 12 per cent, according to the latest public opinion poll, conducted by Léger for Le Devoir and the Journal de Montréal.
For the PQ, it’s at two per cent. Léger says 71 per cent of nonfrancophones feel most comfortable with the Liberals.
Add to this dynamic that 93 per cent of non-francophones and 54 per cent of francophones oppose sovereignty, and the CAQ and PQ have a steep hill to climb.
For the record, Léger says overall support among Quebecers for sovereignty is 37 per cent. Sixty-three per cent of Quebecers say they would vote No.
Léger’s poll was conducted Nov. 7-10 in all regions of Quebec. With a sample size of 999 Quebecers, it is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 per cent 19 times out of 20.
These numbers — especially the 12 per cent support for the CAQ among non-francophones — may explain the severity of Premier Philippe Couillard’s attacks on opponents during a closing speech of a Liberal general council meeting in Laval last Sunday.
Couillard skewered both Lisée and Legault, saying neither can be trusted to follow through on their promises.
Lisée’s pledge just means the referendum campaign will last six years, Couillard said, and during that period the party will undertake a “constant, sneaky” campaign to portray Canada as a bad place for Quebecers.
“Nobody believes him,” Couillard said in an interview the day after Lisée was elected PQ party chief. The premier even invoked former PQ leader Jacques Parizeau’s famous remark about luring anglos and other minorities: “Remember the good old tactic of the lobster trap used by his master.”
As for Legault, Couillard was equally brutal: “Could it be he’s hiding the idea of holding another referendum?” he asked in his speech Sunday. “Could it be? I think it could be.”
Meanwhile, after two years of austerity, the Liberals are trying to put on a kinder face. Clearly they want to offer Quebecers other reasons to vote Liberal now the threat of a referendum seems to be on the back burner.
And yet, they are only too eager to remind voters that the threat of a referendum still exists.
During his first week as PQ leader, in an emotional outburst in the legislature, Lisée accused Couillard of referendum fear mongering as a way to dodge questions on other issues.
“If the premier wants to talk about independence, I challenge him to debate with me, on television, for an hour,” Lisée snapped.
Couillard responded: “I am going to continue talking about Quebec separation here because I want to put in relief the difference between the two political parties.
“They (in the PQ) are in the clouds, in a parallel reality where Canada is a ghastly country for Quebecers, where we are mistreated, humiliated, under siege when it is the most envied country on the planet and Quebecers know that.”
Later, Lisée told the Montreal Gazette he believes the federalist argument has run out of steam.
“It has changed dramatically because for years — from (Jean) Lesage to (Robert) Bourassa — the pitch was we can make Canada work for Quebec, we can change it for the better and there’s a possibility.
“Now that’s gone. Now the pitch is Canada is good for you as it is, without us being in the constitution, without any formal recognition of the Quebec nation, without any autonomy recognized in the constitution and institutions. So it’s take it or leave it — but don’t leave it.”
Some federalists recognize the need to up their game, and have watched closely as sovereignists quietly re-group.
Last month, an independence think tank was launched under the guidance of constitutional expert and former politician Daniel Turp. The idea for the sovereignty institute came from Pierre Karl Péladeau before he stepped down as PQ leader.
The counterweight to that is The Federal Idea, the think tank co-founded in 2009 by former La Presse editorial writer André Pratte, now an independent senator in Ottawa. In recent remarks, he warned that Lisée’s arrival should be seen as a wake-up call for federalists. “We have to be able to respond intelligently to a sovereignist leader who is intelligent,” Pratte said. “Being a federalist is not just yelling the word referendum every four years.”
It has been reported that the federal Liberals of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau believe the best approach to Lisée is to ignore him. Pratte said that would be a mistake. “Not answering is being absent — and being absent is never a good idea.”
Pratte noted jurisdictional issues and nationalism can roar to life on a moment’s notice, as was seen during the Brexit debate.
“Mr. Lisée says no referendum in a first mandate,” he said. “If things change, I think that promise could go by the wayside pretty quick.”