Montreal Gazette

I, THE EXPERT ON EXPERTS, DECREE ALL OTHER EXPERTS ARE MISTAKEN

- JOSH FREED joshfreed4­9@gmail.com

The following poll is accurate 50 per cent of the time, with a probabilit­y of error slightly larger than any possibilit­y of truth.

I think President Trump will: a) Build a 12-foot-high wall; b) Build an 18-mile-high wall; c) Build a wall of casinos along the border, where winners get in and losers don’t; d) Kick Japan out of NAFTA; e) I don’t have a clue.

If you answered (e), you learned something in the recent election, which taught us an important lesson: Nobody knows nothing.

If you’re looking for stocks to sell, make it any company that does polling — a “science” that now looks as reliable as crystal balls, Ouija boards, tarot cards and examining sheep entrails.

That’s why many polling companies are now self-examining to find out what went wrong — by commission­ing more polls.

We have entered a grave new world where the globe is shifting on its axis, and Donald Trump now spins it. As reader Anne Le Bel told me: “Orange is the new black.”

The major pollsters were all wrong about this election just as they were about Brexit, the Scottish referendum and the Colombian one. The truth is pollsters can ask any question they want, but people don’t have to tell them the truth.

Which of the following expresses your feelings about the election? a) Elated; b) Defeated; c) Nauseated; d) I have this weird feeling in the pit of my stomach the last two weeks, doctor.

Whatever answer you chose, you are probably wrong — but if you answered (d), try an antacid pill. It worked for me.

Not only the pollsters were wrong. So were America’s smartest pundits, commentato­rs, columnists, analysts, senior correspond­ents, junior reporters and six million other journalist­s who had no clue Trump would win.

Then again, maybe what I said in that last sentence is incorrect, because I’m a journalist, too, so whatever I say is probably wrong.

Who of the following will not eventually be on President Trump’s new cabinet? a) Rudy Giuliani; b) Sarah Palin; c) Chris Christie; d) Don Corleone; e) Count Dracula.

A few years ago I did a film called The Trouble With Experts about why the ever-growing number of experts around us were usually wrong.

I talked to former stock market advisers handling billion-dollar funds who admitted they’d known nothing about the stock market — and to art forgers who’d fooled the world’s best museum experts.

I went to “expert schools” where they taught aspiring TV pundits to always sound certain and never use words like “maybe”.

Most unforgetta­ble were a group of wine experts in Paris who took part in a wine bar tasting, organized by a French vineyard owner. Before it started, he secretly poured an acclaimed $500 dollar bottle into a $40 one — and vice versa — then brought the switched bottles out to be tasted.

Almost every wine expert preferred the cheap stuff disguised in the expensive bottle. That included the embarrasse­d wine bar sommelier who scoffed at the good stuff with the $40 label and praised the expensive bottle with the cheaper wine.

So I should have known that when the experts all declared Clinton would win, Trump was a shoo-in.

Studies show the more certain experts are, the more likely they are to be wrong. The world is an uncertain place and you have to keep changing your assumption­s to keep up with it.

So the more uncertain experts are, the more likely they are to be right, or sort of right, or whatever — though obviously I could be wrong about that.

It now seems many U.S. voters decided to decide at the last minute, so a million people came out to vote for Trump who weren’t expected by experts. And you can’t predict the unpredicta­ble.

Our best protection against Trump-induced anxiety is: a) The fact we live in Canada; b) Justin Trudeau’s sunny ways; c) Cancelling CBC, CNN and other news channels;

d) Donald Trump changes his mind so often he may not remember what he said he’d do.

It was partly a distrust of experts that drove many voters to elect an ordinary billionair­e who knows nothing about running the country, or the planet — and will get his first experience on the job.

If you ask me, the world is moving into uncharted and dangerous waters — and by the time this is over we will badly miss experts again.

But of course, I wouldn’t listen to me.

Would you rather: a) Sleep with your smartphone; b) Sleep with a robot; c) Sleep with your gun; d) Sleep with Netflix; e) Sleep.

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