Recipe for Habs’ success might lie in failing first
When general manager Marc Bergevin delivered his post-mortem last month, he renewed his commitment to building through the draft while conceding that it is difficult when the Canadiens have to wait for 20 or more teams to make their selections.
It’s like arriving for a Boxing Day sale at 5 p.m.
There is a solution for this, but it involves pain. Years of seemingly unbearable pain.
The strategy is to suck, earn No. 1, or top-five, draft picks by being bad — and with the introduction of the draft lottery being lucky — and reap the rewards down the line. Forget about All In; the path to success is All Out.There are numerous examples of how this scenario has played out in the quarter century since the Canadiens last won the Stanley Cup.
Let’s start with the Chicago Blackhawks, a team whose rise Bergevin witnessed firsthand. The Blackhawks have won the Cup three times in this decade. Prior to their success, the Blackhawks missed the playoffs 13 times in 15 seasons. They also experienced every owner’s nightmare: A precipitous drop in attendance although that had more to do with owner Bill Wirtz’s reluctance to televise games than the incompetence on the ice.
Those failures allowed them to draft Jonathan Toews third overall in 2006 and Patrick Kane first overall a year later. They screwed up with Cam Barker (third overall in 2004) but Brent Seabrook was a first-rounder (No. 14) in 2003 and Duncan Keith (No. 54) was a second-round steal in 2002 after playing one year at Michigan State University.
Los Angeles won Stanley Cups in 2012 and ’14 after missing the playoffs 12 times in 14 seasons. Their consolation for more than a decade of frustration was stud defenceman Drew Doughty, who was drafted No. 2 overall behind Steven Stamkos in 2008. They also picked up Anze Kopitar in the first round (No. 11) in 2005.
Pittsburgh is the defending Stanley Cup champion. The Penguins also won in 2009 and have been contenders since they went through a four-season playoff drought from 2002 to 2006. General manager Craig Patrick was let go after the 2005-06 season, but they should have given him a parade.
He drafted goaltender MarcAndré Fleury first overall in 2003. Evgeni Malkin was selected right behind fellow Russian, and No. 1 overall pick, Alex Ovechkin in 2004. Sidney Crosby was drafted No. 1 overall in 2005, when Patrick also found Kris Letang in the third round (No. 62 overall).
The one team bucking this loseto-win trend has been Detroit, which has won four Cups since 1996. The Red Wings, who missed the playoffs this year for the first time since 1990, haven’t had a top10 draft pick since Keith Primeau was No. 3 overall in 1990 and they have had only five picks in the top 20 since 1995.
The key is whether management and fans are willing to accept swapping years of frustration for years of despair.
The two most exciting NHL teams in Canada went that route and are starting to see positive results. The Edmonton Oilers went 10 years without a playoff spot and are battling for a spot in the Western Conference final. Hart Trophy finalist Connor McDavid (first overall in 2015) is the latest addition in a list of draft choices that includes Leon Draisaitl (third in 2014), Darnell Nurse (seventh in 2013), the forgettable Nail Yakupov (first in 2012) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (first in 2011) and Taylor Hall (first in 2010). The Oilers used Hall to shore up their defence by trading him to the New Jersey Devils last summer for Adam Larsson.
Toronto returned to the playoffs after one appearance in their previous 10 years. Most of the talk has been about Auston Matthews, the first overall pick last June, but the Maple Leafs also added Mitch Marner (fourth in 2015), William Nylander (eighth in 2014; Morgan Rielly (fifth in 2012) and Nazem Kadri (seventh in 2009).
The Canadiens have had only eight top-10 picks since Doug Wickenheiser was first overall in 1980. They hit a home run with Carey Price (fifth in 2005) and triples with Petr Svoboda (fifth in 1984), Shayne Corson (eighth in 1984) and Mark Hunter (seventh in 1981). The jury is still out on Alex Galchenyuk (third in 2012) and Mikhail Sergachev (ninth last June). Andrei Kostitsyn (10th in 2003) had his moments, but not enough of them. Terry Ryan (eighth in 1995) was a strikeout, but he did write one of my favourite hockey books — Tales Of A First-Round Nothing: My Life As An NHL Footnote.
The draft lottery makes tanking more problematic — Colorado had the worst record this season, but is picking fourth in a draft with three can’t-miss players — and you have to hope your scouts can tell Doug Wickenheiser from Denis Savard. And the pain will be greater knowing you’ve wasted Price’s best years. But there may be some truth in that adage about losing before you win.
The key is whether management and fans are willing to accept swapping years of frustration for years of despair.