THE CAVS AND THE CAV NOTS
Raptors a clear level below Cleveland
By an unofficial count, the Toronto Raptors franchise record for consecutive playoff games without an existential question about the future of the team stands at three.
Coming into this series off three straight wins over the Milwaukee Bucks, it was the only time over four consecutive playoff seasons in which the Raptors had played up to their ability, had seen their stars perform well and had quelled the concerns about whether this group could win in the post-season.
And the moment passed quickly. But unlike recent playoff failures that threw the future of the roster and coaching staff into doubt, it’s much less clear that this series against the Cleveland Cavaliers is telling the Raptors — and more importantly its management — anything meaningful about their team.
So far the Cavs, the team that just about everyone thought was by far the class of the NBA’s Eastern Conference, are playing like the class of the Eastern Conference. The team that was largely expected to be able to flip a switch in the post-season and start playing like the team that won the title last year has gone ahead and flipped the switch. And a LeBron James-led team that was 28-4 against East teams in the playoffs over the last three seasons before this series is now 30-4.
The Raptors look to be a clear level below the Cavaliers. Which, if we’re being honest, is not all that shocking.
How good are the Cavaliers when they are rolling? In Wednesday night’s Game 2, with the Raptors having spent two days talking up the need to play tighter defence, they managed to do some of that. They contested 11 Cleveland three-point attempts with “tight” defence, according to data from NBA.com, after having only had a defender within four feet on four such attempts in Game 1. But even with a Toronto defender present and in their face, the Cavs shot 60 per cent on those attempts. The Raptors also trimmed the number of Cleveland three-point attempts that the NBA considers “open” and “wide open” from Game 1 to Game 2, and the Cavaliers still ended up making four more three-balls in the second game. So to recap, the Raptors set out with a goal of playing more aggressive defence, they juggled the starting lineup to give them more players who could manage that aggressive style, they went out and played more active defence ... and the Cavaliers still beat them by 22 points and fell one point shy of scoring 100 in the first three quarters alone.
If that kind of offensive performance by Cleveland keeps up, what will Raptors president Masai Ujiri have learned about his team? That it can’t match the firepower of a Cavs team that is playing its best? Sure, but he already knew that. LeBron and friends came back from a 3-1 series deficit to beat the greatest regular-season team ever in the Finals last year. The Cavs are absurdly good. The trades for Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker gave Toronto its best-ever lineup, but that was, and it still is, one that was going to need some breaks to knock off the champs. They would need to shoot well and have Cleveland do the opposite. Instead, the reverse has happened. The Raptors shot 47 per cent from the field and just 29 per cent from three-point range in Game 2, the Cavs shot 55 per cent from each. That way blowouts lie.
For now, the Raptors’ best hope is regression to the mean. Toronto shot 36 per cent on wide-open threes in the first two games, making just eight of 22 such attempts. They had open looks all over the court in the opening minutes of Game 2 and couldn’t convert them. If they do that at home, they stand a chance. The Cavs, meanwhile, shot poorly in Toronto last year, not because the Raptors played them tougher, but because Cleveland missed more open shots. The Cavs were 52 per cent on wide-open threes on their home court in last year’s series and just 36 per cent on such shots at the Air Canada Centre. Sometimes good shooters miss. It happens, but it’s not the greatest thing on which to hang one’s hopes.
If the Raptors are unable to make this much of a series, the existential questions will be right back in front again. Do they bring back Kyle Lowry and Ibaka at huge long-term dollars? Do they try to find some other core mix of players? These are fair questions, but getting walloped by the Cavs isn’t answering them. This isn’t struggling to get by Indiana or Miami or Milwaukee. And with the very real possibility that Lowry will miss time — or at least be hobbled by a sore ankle — this series would be even less useful as a measuring stick. The Cavs at their best are overwhelming them. The Cavs at their best are going to overwhelm almost everyone.
As it stands now, it looks like the way to get past LeBron James in the East is to coax him into retirement.