TAKING THEIR BEST SHOT
Caps control play, but not series
Hey, so here’s something I never ever want to hear again for the rest of my life: The Washington Capitals played great, dominated possession and registered 437 more shot attempts than their playoff opponent, but they lost because hockey is weird and random.
(Sorry, I just have nothing else to write right now other than the obvious: If the Caps want to win this series, they should probably stop taking offensive-zone penalties, have their star goalie decisively outplay the Pittsburgh Penguins’ backup, receive some individual greatness from their first line and get more than one lousy puny stinking goal from their bottom six forwards).
But anyhow.
Q Why are you so sick of hearing about the Caps outshooting their playoff opponents? Isn’t that a sign of possession dominance, which is a very accurate long-term predictor of scoreboard success?
A Yeah, I guess.
Q So shouldn’t it be considered a promising sign that Washington had double Pittsburgh’s shots on Wednesday night, plus an even bigger advantage in shot attempts? Doesn’t that mean the worm will soon turn?
A I dunno, let’s ask Mike Knuble, after the Caps outshot the Montreal Canadiens 54-22 in a 2010 Game 6 loss.
(Yes, we’re really doing this. You can leave now if you’d prefer.)
“The key for us is we want to go with the same pressure that we had tonight and try to keep them on their heels,” Knuble said. “Obviously, we want to convert a couple, but we’re going to keep going with that same pressure. There can’t be any frustration in our game. No matter what’s happened with the power play, we did a lot of good things on it and it’ll pay off and we all believe that.”
Q Way to cherry-pick one quote.
A “You can see how we play,” Alex Ovechkin said after the same game. “I think we play great. We just didn’t score. We just have to find a way to score more goals.”
Q That’s just one game.
A OK, let’s ask Scott Walker after the Caps outshot the Canadiens 42-16 in a 2010 Game 7 loss:
“One time I looked up, I think, on the bench, and it was 33-11 (in shots) and we were losing 1-0,” he said.
“That has to play into your mindset a little bit as a goal scorer. The puck just wasn’t going in the net. When it’s 33-11, you think the score would be at least 3- or 4-1, right?”
Q I don’t like where this is headed.
A Yeah, well, I’m not done yet, dang it! Let’s ask Barry Trotz after the Caps outshot the Penguins 49-23 in a Game 3 loss last spring:
“If you look at the number of chances, it was very high and very lopsided,” Trotz said. “We’ll continue. We feel good about where we went. The only thing I don’t like about it is the result.”
Q Please stop.
A No! I am not done yet! Keep reading. Let’s ask Evgeny Kuznetsov, after the Caps outshot the Penguins 35-19 in a Game 1 loss:
“Keep doing the same thing, stay with the plan and pucks will go in the net for sure,” he said.
Q So what happened Wednesday night?
A Let’s ask T.J. Oshie, after the Caps outshot the Penguins 38-19 in a Game 4 loss.
“We had some golden opportunities to score goals, and for whatever reason, we didn’t put them in,” he said.
Q This seems to be a trend.
A Do you know something weird? Really weird? There have now been 51 NHL playoff games since 2010 in which the losing team had at least 35 shots, and the winning team had fewer than 25 shots. The Caps are responsible for eight of them. Eight out of 51! That’s 16 per cent!
In the past two years, there have been just 15 of those dominate-in-shots-but-lose-in-goals playoff games. The Caps account for five of them. Either they are unlucky, or there is some reason they are regularly outshooting opponents and still not winning.
Either way, the window for this group might not be closed after this season, but that day is coming. And when they’re gone, you don’t want to be left with a banner reading The Underlying Process Was Solid, or We Sure Had a Lot of Chances, or We Liked Everything But the Result.