CAQ pleased to see minority vote shifting

English-speaking Quebecers are starting to realize they have an option other than voting Liberal in the next general election, says François Legault.

Reacting to a new poll showing his party, the Coalition Avenir Québec, is in second place in overall standings, Legault said he was especially pleased to see the non-francophone community is having another look at what he’s offering as the second federalist party on the scene.

“Every day, anglophone voters realize that they now have another option,” Legault said in an email to the Montreal Gazette. “They now have a real choice.

“The CAQ wants Quebec to prosper within Canada to the benefit of all Quebecers.”

A new Mainstreet public opinion poll conducted for the Montreal Gazette and Postmedia published Wednesday revealed an unusual volatility in the francophone vote, which has affected overall standings.

But that vote is only one factor helping the CAQ assume second place in the poll. While the PQ’s franco support is dropping, some of the non-francophone vote also has shifted to the CAQ for the first time in a long while.

Mainstreet revealed the CAQ now has the support of 23 per cent of the non-francophone vote, which tends to be concentrated in the Montreal region where the CAQ has never managed to win a seat.

That’s a big increase from the May Mainstreet poll, which pegged CAQ support in those communities at 9 per cent. In an April poll by the same firm, the number was 7 per cent.

The Parti Québécois is polling at 4 per cent among non-francophones despite leader JeanFrançois Lisée’s efforts to make his party more open to minorities. Québec solidaire is at 2 per cent in the non-francophone pool of voters.

At the same time, non-francophone support for the Liberal party — the traditional favourite — dropped. While Liberals had the support of 84 per cent of decided and leaning voters in April, that figure slipped to 77 per cent in May and now sits at 71 per cent.

The decline may explain recent overtures by Premier Philippe Couillard, who announced last week the creation of a new secretariat to help work on issues important to the English-speaking community.

But Legault said it may be too little too late.

“For too long, the Liberals have taken the English-speaking community for granted,” Legault said. “And my opinion is that the CAQ program appeals to a growing number of them.”

Overall, the poll placed the Liberals in the lead in public opinion with the support of 33 per cent of decided and leaning voters. The CAQ was second with 27 per cent while the Parti Québécois is way down in third place at 22 per cent.

The premier and other Liberals were not commenting on the poll Wednesday. Neither would anyone in the PQ.

Liberal party insiders explained their drop in the non-francophone vote with the rise of QS. Left wing anglophones, who may vote the New Democratic Party federally, are now having a look at QS, a senior official said.

What surprised the Liberals the most is the poll’s finding that they now have a larger share of the francophone-only vote than the PQ. The Liberals are at 27 per cent in that category, the PQ 25 per cent.

But according to political analyst Christian Dufour, the PQ’s real problem — as revealed in the poll — is QS. The small party, which scored only 7.6 per cent of the votes in the 2014 election, is now polling at 18 per cent and nibbling away at the PQ’s traditional left-of centre vote.

On the island of Montreal, the PQ and QS are tied at 19 per cent.

Dufour said PQ leader JeanFrançois Lisée made an enormous error in trying to negotiate an election pact with the QS because the result is that QS gained credibility in the eyes of voters.

“He (Lisée) created a monster,” Dufour said in an interview. “The danger now is that QS will become a large PQ or the PQ a small QS.”

Overall, Dufour said the poll confirms Quebecers see the CAQ, not the PQ, as the alternative government to the Liberals and that may be due to the CAQ’s decision to run on an “in Canada,” platform.

“For the moment, the CAQ is non-threatening,” Dufour said.

Add into the mix the fact voters may seek change in 2018, he said and “that is very dangerous for the PQ.”

But in an interview, QS cospokesman Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois said the PQ has only itself to blame for its poor standing.

“The PQ has been losing votes in every election since 1998,” Nadeau-Dubois said. “QS was founded in 2006. There’s a limit to blaming QS for the PQ’s lack of success.

“Over and above the poll, QS has momentum.”

He said he is not all that surprised because other left-wing progressive movements on the planet are also on rise because people tried the right wing and it got them nowhere.

“Parties that propose political options which break with the established order have the wind in their sails,” Nadeau-Dubois said.

It is worth noting while the margin of error for the overall poll is plus or minus 2.53 percentage points 19 times out of 20, the subgroup margin covering non-francophones is higher, plus or minus 6.71 per cent, pollsters say.

The non-francophone group also includes a higher rate of undecideds. While the poll’s overall undecided rate is 26 per cent, among non-francophones it is 41 per cent.