Experts question census results on anglophones

Huge increase in Quebec numbers ‘defies logic,’ researcher argues

Has the anglophone population of Rivière-du-Loup more than quadrupled in five years? Are there almost five times as many English speakers in Dolbeau-Mistassini, in the Lac- St-Jean region? Has Quebec City gained 6,000 residents whose mother tongue is English since 2011?

So say the results released last week from the 2016 census.

But some researchers who study Quebec’s anglophone minority aren’t buying it.

“It defies logic,” said Jack Jedwab, the executive vice-president of the Association for Canadian Studies. On Wednesday, Jedwab wrote to Statistics Canada questioning the accuracy of the findings on language in Quebec.

“It is imperative to move quickly to explain the shifts,” he wrote in a letter to chief statistician Anil Arora, requesting that the federal agency hold a formal inquiry into the findings. “Until such time, I have serious reservations about the capacity to use the data outside the Montreal Metro region for policy or any other purpose.”

Jedwab said the findings showing startling gains for the Englishspeaking community in remote regions of Quebec cast doubt on the census results on language, which were released Aug. 2.

They showed mother-tongue anglophones in Quebec grew by 74,000 to 774,390 from 2011 to 2016 — a growth rate of 10.6 per cent, triple the growth rate for Quebec’s population as a whole.

“It’s the largest gain we’ve seen in at least 50 years,” Jedwab noted. “I think everyone probably assumed when they first saw that figure, apart from being very surprised, that Montreal was the beneficiary of that.”

But delving into the data, he discovered the reported surge is centred in outlying regions that have been losing residents for decades.

The census results suggest the English mother tongue population of Quebec outside of Montreal and Gatineau has risen by 25 per cent.

In Montreal, mother-tongue anglos grew by six per cent, while in Gatineau, they rose by 10 per cent.

Jedwab said the findings are “extremely unlikely because they suggest that there’s been a mass movement of persons whose first language is English to outlying regions of Quebec.”

Data on immigration and school enrolment do not corroborate such a rise, he noted.

“English-language schools in parts of the province outside of Montreal aren’t anywhere near encountering increases of this magnitude,” he added.

David Lemelin, the communications director for Rivièredu-Loup, 430 kilometres east of Montreal, said that if there has been an influx of anglophones to the town of 20,000, “they must be lying low.”

“People who can speak English, maybe you could believe that, but English mother tongue, that is really astounding,” Lemelin said.

The census results said the number people who speak English at home in Rivière-du-Loup grew from 70 in 2011 to 305 in 2016 — an increase of 335 per cent.

Mother-tongue anglophones in the town grew from 135 in 2011 to 360 in 2016 — an increase of 166 per cent.

It’s possible that a local industrial equipment company, Premier Tech, which has an international market, might be attracting English-speaking employees such as engineers, Lemelin said. “But that doesn’t explain 200 more people.

“I don’t think anglophones are fleeing from Canada to come and live in Rivière-du-Loup,” Lemelin quipped with a chuckle.

Joanne Pocock, a sociologist who has worked extensively as a consultant with English-speaking communities across Quebec, said the findings do not jibe with what English-speaking community organizations are seeing on the ground.

“When you see a population doubling in size and even tripling in some of these areas, in the Rimouski area, in Abitibi-Témiscamingue, in Saguenay, these are small enough communities that it would be pretty hard for them to miss a large influx like that. They don’t see evidence of it, and that’s what gets my antenna up,” she said.

Jennifer Johnson, the executive director of the Community Health and Social Services Network, which supports English-speaking communities’ health needs and vitality, said many community organizations outside Montreal were expecting to see growth, but not of the magnitude suggested by the census results.

“All of them would tell you they can’t account for the large numbers,” she said.

Jedwab was reluctant to speculate on whether the cause could

English-language schools in parts of the province outside of Montreal aren’t anywhere near encountering increases of this magnitude.

be people giving false information on the census, a technical issue or other issue.

Aside from Rivière-du-Loup, increases in mother-tongue anglophones were highest in Dolbeau-Mistassini (207 per cent), Alma (170 per cent), Rimouski (164 per cent), Baie-Comeau (118 per cent) and Saguenay (115 per cent).

Increases in the number of people who speak English at home were most marked in Dolbeau-Mistassini (342 per cent), Alma (318 per cent), Rimouski (283 per cent), Baie-Comeau (259 per cent) and Matane (244 per cent).

Peter Frayne, the chief of corporate communications and media relations at Statistics Canada, issued a brief statement.

“Statistics Canada takes data accuracy and quality very seriously, and applies recognized statistical methods and data verification standards in all its programs, including the census.

“When issues of concern are raised, we take the necessary measures to review them thoroughly and respond to them,” it said.