NAFTA talks spell trouble for dairy farmers

For supply management, the writing seems to be on the wall, Sylvain Charlebois says.

Some have claimed that supply management was established as a social contract between farmers and consumers. Our heavily criticized quota regime to support the dairy, egg and poultry industries in Canada was set up decades ago to protect strategic agricultural sectors by implementing high tariffs on imports.

There is nothing like it in the Northern Hemisphere — at least not anymore, since Europe got rid of its system back in 2015. But if there indeed ever was a social contract, it may need to be re-drafted as NAFTA negotiations begin.

According to a recent Angus Reid poll, barely four per cent of Canadians can adequately describe what supply management really is. What is more, 51 per cent believe milk is not supply managed when in fact dairy represents about 80 per cent of the entire system.

Dairy Farmers of Canada, arguably the strongest lobby group in the country, has published several polls over the years suggesting that Canadians are supportive of the system. Regardless, one thing is certain: Most of us are simply clueless about the mechanics behind supply management.

Most holding public office have told us it is good for us and for our economy, without fully explaining the rationale.

Few politicians have also sought to demonstrate the indirect costs of hanging on to such a system: lost opportunities, lack of innovation to support trade with other countries, and so forth. In dairy, the system operates in complete obscurity, where decisions are made by dairy farmers, for dairy farmers. Other than Conservative MP Maxime Bernier, nobody has dared question the logic.

That said, with Health Canada sending signals that it wants its next food guide to encourage Canadians to adopt a plant-based diet, the writing seems to be on the proverbial wall.

We now know that inciting adults to drink milk is just not on anymore.

With the support of sound research over the years, we now know that inciting adults to drink milk is just not on anymore. While science has evolved, the dairy industry has not. The sector has survived in spite of itself, without trying to think about milk in a different light. It doesn’t want to compete because it has never really had to. As borders around the world were opening, dairy farmers were divorcing themselves from the Canadian population, using rhetoric and condemning anyone displaying discontent for the system.

This attitude of “the system’s great and leave us alone” just doesn’t cut it anymore.

As a nation, despite our collective ignorance regarding supply management, we have never discussed this very issue as much as we have lately. Quite fascinating. We even saw the president of the United States acknowledging its existence for the first time back in April, in dairy-friendly Wisconsin.

Since then, messages from the United States have been mixed, and the Trudeau government seems to be preparing for several possible scenarios. Wanting to make this a true national issue, it has just appointed an advisory committee that includes members from all political spectrums.

Consumers implicitly trust farmers, so why would they begin to doubt them now? But with NAFTA discussions about to start, stakes appear much higher for all of us. With NAFTA 2.0, some are starting to wonder if compromising the future of many economic sectors in order to safeguard supply management is worth fighting for. According to the same Angus Reid poll, most Canadians are willing to sacrifice supply management to get a good deal with the Americans and Mexicans. This spells trouble for dairy farmers, and that’s unfortunate.

Dairies in Canada are holding their collective breath since it is the only option they have given themselves. Not very strategic. Let’s hope NAFTA 2.0 will be kind to them, despite their decades-long intentional inertia.