CPP to have 48 times more assets by 2090: analysis

The upcoming OTTAWA enrichment of the Canada Pension Plan will help fuel a 48-fold boost to the public fund’s assets over the long haul — to more than $15.8 trillion by 2090, according to federal calculations.

In comparison, the public plan’s investment manager reported $326.5 billion in net assets at the end of the first quarter of 2017-18.

Long-term projections on the evolution of the CPP’s post-reform assets were included in an internal briefing note prepared for Finance Minister Bill Morneau earlier this year. The memo referred to numbers published last October by the Office of the Chief Actuary.

The figures accounted for the impact of a CPP deal reached last year between the federal government and the provinces. They agreed to changes that will increase Canadians’ retirement benefits through the public plan by raising contributions as of 2019.

CPP reform was a key goal for Ottawa and provinces like Ontario as a way to provide more financial security for future generations of retirees. But it has also faced significant criticism. For example, advocates for small businesses have warned it will be devastating for employers and drive up costs in what they have described as a “payroll tax.”

The increase also means the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, which manages the CPP contributions, will be responsible for far more money over the coming decades. Without the enhancement, the total CPP assets would have totalled $6.7 trillion in 2090, the projections said.

“Additional CPP assets are projected to grow rapidly in the early years as a result of the high level of contributions compared to benefits paid, reaching $70 billion by 2025 and almost $1 trillion by 2045,” said the January briefing memo prepared for Morneau ahead of a scheduled meeting with CPPIB president and CEO Mark Machin.

The projections predicted the assets in the enhanced CPP portion to surpass those collected under the base CPP program by 2055.

Machin has said CPPIB will have to adjust to its additional obligation of managing a much-larger envelope. The group invests CPP assets not currently needed to pay pension, disability and survivor benefits. “With or without reform, the CPP fund is projected to grow significantly in the future, and we’re well-prepared to manage a larger fund,” Machin told MPs last November.

Machin has also stressed the importance of the armslength CPPIB’s independence from government influence when it comes to its decisions around investments. He’s called that separation from potential political pressure one of the secrets to its success.

The briefing note to Morneau outlined several expected areas of focus for his meeting with Machin, including discussion about the government’s proposed infrastructure bank.