Census figures don’t suggest French in decline

There’s no threat in sight to dominance of the language in Quebec, William Johnson says.

The usual chorus of Quebec politicians and pundits chanted lamentations over the 2016 census data published on Aug. 2. Even after Statistics Canada confirmed that a computer error had categorized thousands of French speakers as English, even after corrected figures were published on Aug. 17, the call was raised for tougher legislation to curtail English.

The next day, Le Devoir reported it under this headline: “The corrected portrait continues to cause worry.” The story began: “The error of Statistics Canada on the mother tongue of the Québécois must not let it be forgotten that French is in decline in Quebec, even if it is less so than had been previously announced …”

Decline? The corrected figures show that the number of French mother-tongue individuals in Quebec increased, between 2011 and 2016, by 117,450. The number of those usually speaking French at home increased by 126,590. The difference — of 9,140 individuals — means that, far from declining, French Quebec is attracting thousands who were not of French mother tongue.

So why the lamentations? Because although French increased impressively in numbers, the proportion of the population that is French declined by one percentage point to 77.1 per cent for French-mother tongue, and to 79 for French home language.

That’s not unusual in a modern society that diversifies. There are proportionally fewer “pures laines.” Similarly, in 2016, all 10 Canadian provinces had a smaller proportion of people with English as mother tongue, even as their numbers increased over 2011.

In fact, if you include those who declare French and another language as their usual home language, the figure rises to 82.4 per cent of Quebec’s population — hardly reason to panic.

What counts most for the vitality of French culture is the number of people speaking French, not slight variations in the proportion. Take Montreal Island, always the cause of anxiety for French nationalists. In 2016, the proportion of French mother tongue, compared to 2011, declined from 47.0 per cent to 46.4 per cent. The proportion of French home language declined less: from 50.3 to 49.8 per cent. But, at the same time, the proportion of English mother tongue dropped from 16.6 per cent to 16; English home language, from 23.4 to 22.8. Those of another home language also declined proportionally from 18.9 per cent to 18.3. (Those percentages do not include those who speak more than one language at home.)

But the number of French mother tongue individuals on the island increased by 14,075. In contrast, the number of English mother tongue people fell by 2,805. Those of “other” mother tongues rose by 25,875, but the number using another language at home declined — by 2,120.

The anglos and the “others” pose no threat to the political and cultural dominance of the French on Montreal Island. Besides, Montreal remains under the rule of Quebec.

If you expand beyond the island to include all the Montreal metropolitan region, the picture is more significant. French home language individuals made up 65.9 per cent of the population, a decline of one percentage point, but with an increase of 61,850 individuals. The English home language proportion declined by 0.3 per cent to 15.3 per cent of the population, though with an increase of 11,320 individuals. The “others” increased proportionally from 12.1 to 12.2 per cent of the home language population, with an increase of 21,455 individuals. Again, because the “others” speak dozens of different languages, they offer no threat to the dominance of French.

The two most significant figures of all for gauging the vitality of French are the number and the proportion of Quebec’s population who can speak French. In 2016, that number was 7,619,050, an increase of 243,1250 since 2011. Those who could speak English numbered 3,959,620, an increase of 267,035.

The proportion who could speak French in 2016 was 94.5 per cent, a slight gain over the 94.4 per cent in 2011. The proportion who could speak English was 49.1 per cent.

So, French is the common language of Quebec and there’s no threat to that dominance in sight, except for those who choose fear over facts.