‘Mother of all stats’ doesn’t favour Patriots

The NFL playoffs are set and last year’s defending champions, the top-seeded New England Patriots, will try to win back-to-back titles.

They appear to be a worthy favourite — the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has their odds at 2-to-1 — after scoring a league-high 2.6 points per drive behind an MVPcalibre season from quarterback Tom Brady, the third-most valuable passer in 2017 per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating.

However, there is at least one reason to doubt their chances: The Patriots have a net passer rating differential of 13.1, the 10th highest in the league this season.

Dubbed the Mother of All Stats during the 2012 Pro Football Researchers Association biennial meeting, net passer rating has been a good litmus test for Super Bowl calibre teams. Since 2002, 22 of the past 30 Super Bowl participants had a passer rating differential among the top five best in the league, including 10 of the past 15 winners.

By this metric, the Minnesota Vikings look every bit a Super Bowl contender. Quarterback Case Keenum produced a passer rating of 98.3 in 14 starts. The defence set a career high in sacks (13) and their secondary was rated as the fourthbest in pass coverage, resulting in the third-lowest passer rating against (73.0) in 2017. The result: a league-leading net passer rating differential of 26.1.

The New Orleans Saints were not far behind. Quarterback Drew Brees finished the year with a 103.9 passer rating. Their defence, meanwhile, allowed just a 79.0 passer rating against in 2017, giving them the league’s second-best net passer rating differential. The Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles round out the top five.

Two playoff teams, Tennessee and Carolina, have negative passer rating differentials, making their title hopes a long shot, at best.