Is Doug Ford’s victory an omen for Quebec?

Ontario PC leader’s populism differs from CAQ’s, but there is a common anger at elites

The election of Doug Ford as leader of Ontario’s Progressive Conservative (PC) party over the weekend appears to have taken many government, media and intellectual elites by surprise. It shouldn’t have.

The businessman and former Toronto city councillor who is probably best known as the brother of the late scandal-ridden Toronto mayor Rob Ford beat out his closest competitor, former MPP and lawyer Christine Elliott, in a close and chaotic race.

Is this an early sign of a changing political tableau in Canada? If so, what are some of the lessons here for Quebec as we head into our own election year?

Over the last few years, Quebec Liberal Premier Philippe Couillard and his Ontario counterpart Kathleen Wynne have enjoyed a close relationship. But Ontario goes to the polls in a few months. Wynne’s Liberals are deeply unpopular in the province, and the prospect of Premier Doug Ford is a very real possibility.

Meanwhile, recent polls have consistently indicated that Coalition Avenir Québec under the leadership of François Legault is the frontrunner and favoured alternative to the Liberals as Quebec heads into our next general election, expected Oct. 1.

There are many factors driving the populist movements we’re seeing around the world. Ford’s win is an example of this. Ford didn’t win by running a particularly anti-immigrant, xenophobic or nativist campaign. Instead, he tapped into feelings of economic insecurity, growing inequality, precarious employment and resentment toward ruling establishment and elites. It’s an important reminder that populist movements are not always anti-immigrant or xenophobic; they can also appeal to minority groups and immigrants who feel frustrated or excluded from their societies.

Here in Quebec, we are no stranger to populist movements. In this province, much of it has been tied to questions around nationalism, identity and reasonable accommodation. The last decade or so offers up a few examples of this. In the 2007 Quebec election, the Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ) — a populist, conservative party led by Mario Dumont — campaigned hard on the issue of reasonable accommodation, arguing that accommodations for immigrants and minority groups had gone too far. He brought the ADQ to official opposition, and pushed the Parti Québécois to third place. They later lost official party status in the 2008 election. In 2011, they merged with the upstart CAQ.

Unlike Ontario, Quebec is doing quite well in many ways: our economy is growing, and our unemployment rate is low. In fact, according to the Institut de la statistique du Québec, the unemployment rate in this province fell to 4.9 per cent in December, the lowest it’s been since 1976. In 2017, Quebec also posted a slightly larger bump in employment than both Ontario and Canada as a whole.

Where Quebec needs to improve is in the area of economic integration of, and preventing discrimination against, immigrants. New arrivals to Quebec experience higher unemployment, have lower incomes and are more overqualified for their jobs than other Quebecers, according to a 2016 study by Montreal based Institut de recherche et d’informations socio-économiques (IRIS). There is a problem of discrimination in Quebec when it comes to hiring and wages, and the underrepresentation of racial, ethnic and linguistic minorities in the public service.

Here’s a take-away: People want change. The election of Ford to the head of Ontario’s PC party may not mean much to most Quebecers. But for political observers, it could represent a canary in the coal mine signalling a growing disillusionment with the government elite in this country. There is no evidence to suggest that Canada — including at the provincial level — is exempt from the forces driving antiestablishment populism in the United States, Europe and other parts of the world.

With the exception of a brief period from 2012 to 2014 when the PQ held a minority government, the Liberal party of Quebec has been in power since 2003. For what it’s worth, the Ontario Liberal party has been in power for a similar amount of time. Twitter.com/ Cooper-Celine