G7 in Charlevoix: the Trump factor
Summit is a chance for consensus on global issues. What are the chances?
In June, the region of Charlevoix will play host to leaders from seven of the world’s advanced economies for the 44th Group of Seven (G7) Summit.
Or, as it may otherwise come to be known, the second annual G6 versus Donald Trump.
I kid, I kid. But only a little. Last year’s 2017 G7 meeting in Taormina, Italy — Trump’s first full international summit as U.S. president — was marked by tension and disagreement between the United States and the other members, notably on issues of climate and trade.
As host this year, Canada is responsible for setting the agenda, hosting and organizing the leaders’ summit, ministerial meetings and other related events. The U.S. president is as volatile and unpredictable as ever, and the Trump factor is likely to remain a big, blinking question mark hanging over the road to the G7 in Charlevoix.
The G7 is made up of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission attends but is not part of the hosting rotation. Russia joined in 1998, making it the G 8 for awhile, but was booted out in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.
Since the 1970s, leaders have met at the annual G7 Summit to discuss and address pressing global challenges. Each government appoints a “sherpa” — typically a senior government bureaucrat — to represent his or her national leaders ahead of the summit and lay the groundwork for the meeting. It is an informal, consensusbased forum. Decisions must be agreed upon by all members.
Last year, things didn’t go so well on this front. A day before the summit, Trump notoriously criticized NATO allies for spending too little on defence and described Germany’s trade surplus as “very bad.”
At the summit itself, Canada, France, Italy, Germany, Britain and Japan re-confirmed their commitment to the international 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to curb carbon emissions. Trump stood alone. He refused to honour the U.S. commitment negotiated under his predecessor, and declined to sign a joint statement supporting the deal. It signalled an isolation of the U.S. on this key international issue and an erosion of close to three decades of multilateral work addressing climate change.
The tensions led some observers to remark that the 2017 leaders’ meeting looked less like a G7 and more like a “G6 versus Donald Trump.”
How might all this play out in Charlevoix?
This will be the sixth G7 summit hosted by Canada, and the second held in Quebec. For the record, it will also be Trump’s first visit to Canada since taking office in the White House.
In December, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada’s priorities at the G7 would be framed by five themes: investing in growth that works for everyone; preparing for jobs of the future; advancing gender equality and women’s empowerment; working together on climate change, oceans and clean energy; and building a more peaceful and secure world. A few thoughts:
On climate, Trump has left the door open to the U.S. re-entering the Paris emissions deal, but on its own terms. Whatever that means. While NAFTA isn’t a G7 issue, ongoing negotiations mean that trade will likely remain a key issue that will influence the tenor, if not the content, of discussions. Finally, Canada has placed gender equality and women’s empowerment firmly at the heart of its G7 agenda, going so far as to establish a Gender Equality Advisory Council made up of international leaders. Although his daughter (official role: assistant to the president) Ivanka Trump has spoken on gender equality, I think it’s safe to say the president doesn’t seem too committed to the issue.
Throughout his presidency, Trump has consistently pushed back against many issues the G7 has championed, including free trade, the migrant crisis, climate change, gender equality and multilateralism.
Will Charlevoix be remembered as a site of consensus instead of division? I sincerely hope so, but wouldn’t hold my breath. twitter.com/CooperCeline