Mexico’s economy minister predicts 80% chance of NAFTA deal by early May

MEXICO CITY Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo lowered expectations that the three NAFTA nations will reach an initial deal this week, saying instead he sees an 80-per-cent chance of an agreement by the first week of May.

“We are within weeks of knowing if the NAFTA talks close with success,” according to Guajardo, who is in charge of the negotiations for the Mexican government.

“We are fairly close on NAFTA and if we don’t make the right deal we’ll terminate NAFTA and we’ll make the right deal after that,” U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters during a cabinet meeting on Monday.

The White House has been pushing to announce a preliminary deal on the North American Free Trade Agreement at the April 13-14 Summit of the Americas in Peru.

Cabinet ministers from the three nations, including Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, met in Washington on Friday, with negotiations scheduled to continue at the technical level on Tuesday.

Major divisions have persisted during the latest discussions, including on automobiles. The Trump administration has pushed for a higher percentage of cars to be produced in North America, though it softened that demand of late in a bid to reach an agreement.

Guajardo said it’s in the Trump administration’s best interests to strike a deal as soon as possible, considering the U.S. Congress holds midterm elections in November.

Though the U.S., Canada and Mexico have made progress recently, including on the critical issue of autos, the majority of NAFTA chapters are unfinished and key disputes remain unresolved. That means a preliminary accord may still need to be changed to satisfy the next U.S. Congress or Mexican Senate and president.