Scheer’s gamble seems to have paid off

On Tout le monde en parle to raise his profile in Quebec, he acquitted himself well

Seeking to raise his profile, Andrew Scheer, the 38-year-old federal Conservative leader from Saskatchewan, rolled the dice and went on Tout le monde en parle (TLMEP).

Why do I say “rolled the dice”? Because for English-speaking federalist politicians, an appearance on Quebec’s must-watch television talk show can be a risky venture. For Scheer, his appearance on Sunday night’s show was his first time on the hot seat.

“You are against abortion, you voted against same-sex marriage and against medically assisted suicide, while Quebecers are in favour of all of these things. Welcome to Quebec, Mr. Scheer,” host Guy A. Lepage said, smiling at him from across the desk.

The underlying message is impossible to miss: Welcome to Quebec. Thank you for coming. Now, let’s make something clear right off the bat — you are not one of us, are you, Mr. Scheer?

A show that regularly draws around a million viewers, TLMEP has no equivalent in the rest of Canada. I’m often at a loss when trying to explain its influence to friends and family who live outside the province. Guests of all stripes — artists, activists, intellectuals, politicians, media personalities and beyond — go on to be willingly poked and prodded by host Lepage and co-host Dany Turcotte.

For better or worse, the show has a tremendous amount of power to shape both public discourse and opinion, notably among francophone Quebecers. That power includes the ability to make or break the reputation of its guests, or — in this case — their political fortunes.

It’s worth noting that Scheer’s predecessor Stephen Harper — deeply unpopular in the province — never once made an appearance on the show.

By contrast, the late Jack Layton’s visit to TLMEP during the 2011 federal election campaign is often credited with boosting his approval ratings, transforming him from a Toronto-centric federalist into un bon Jack from Hudson in the minds of francophone Quebecers, and contributing to the NDP sweep in the province a few weeks later, which brought the party to official Opposition status for the first time in Canadian history.

So how did Scheer do? By most measures, pretty well. He made a few jokes. His French was good. And while he still opposes the government’s plan to legalize marijuana, turns out he smoked a bit of weed back in the day (though his director of media relations has since insisted that Scheer did not buy it himself ).

Fact: The Canadian political landscape is changing. Scheer is courting both federalists disappointed with the Trudeau Liberals and nationalists who are fed up with the Bloc Québécois.

If trends hold for the provincial election expected Oct. 1, Quebec appears to be on the cusp of a political swing away from the Couillard Liberals and toward the centre-right. The Coalition Avenir Québec led by François Legault is currently leading in the polls.

It’s true that Scheer’s social conservative positions are at odds with Quebec’s socially progressive views on many issues.

But there is one issue that will help the Conservatives: the increasing concern among Quebecers over the irregular movement of asylum seekers walking across the U.S. border into the province.

It’s too early to predict what will happen in the next federal election, which is not expected until the fall of 2019. But let’s remember that in the 2015 election, Quebec was the only province in which the Harper Tories gained some ground, increasing their seat count from five to 12.

It was the highest number of Conservative MPs elected in Quebec since the days of Brian Mulroney; a far cry from the Liberals’ 40 seats and the NDP’s 16, but a gain nonetheless. Scheer has some work to do. A recent Léger poll found that 48 per cent of Quebecers don’t have an opinion of him. For now, it’s all about raising his profile. On that front, at least, the TLMEP appearance is a gamble that seems to have paid off.

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