Montreal real estate: Are we ready for the “grey wave?”
When it’s time to sell the family home and downsize, most seniors will want to look for a place that ticks all the boxes.
They will probably want a smaller place, but with a big quality of life. A place where it’s easy to walk out the door to be active or meet a friend; somewhere close to family and friends, probably near the same community where they have put down roots. Hopefully, it would be a place they could stay for a while — ideally as long as possible — before moving into an assisted living home.
But many — even most — seniors will find it’s a lot harder than they thought to find the kind of place they are dreaming of. While some condo developers and urban planners in Montreal are beginning to create places to appeal specifically to today’s seniors, we are far from ready for the grey wave now swelling as the baby-boomer generation gets set to retire.
According to McGill architecture professor Avi Friedman, there simply aren’t enough of the types of homes in Montreal that can meet the future demand for seniors who want to age in place.
“The numbers are staggering,” Friedman said. “In my view, we don’t have any idea of the kind of difficulty that seniors will face.”
In Quebec, there are now almost as many seniors as children. According to numbers from the Institut de la statistique du Québec, in 2017, 20.5 per cent of the population was under age 20, while 18.5 per cent of the population was over age 65.
But the peak of this wave of seniors is yet to come. Statistics Canada says population aging will accelerate until around 2031, after which it will continue at a slower pace. By 2036, about a quarter of Canada’s population is projected to be retirement age.
According to Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation economist Kevin Hughes, because of the sheer size of the boomer generation the choices they make over the coming decades will have a profound effect on the overall housing market.
There’s often a gap between what people think they want and what they actually need. There’s also a gap between what people say they will do, and what they actually choose. With so many boomers still hovering on the edge of a decision about how to live in retirement, Hughes said it’s a big challenge for analysts and developers to predict what they’re really going to do.
“Baby boomers themselves have questions about the future of where they will be in the next five to 10 years,” Hughes said. “They may have some preferences, but will their preferences come to reality? That’s another question.”
For those looking ahead to retirement but not yet feeling pressed to sell their family home, it’s easier just to stay put until they find a place they really like. In some homes, adding ramps and grab bars, main-floor bathrooms and bedrooms, and other features can allow seniors to stay longer. But no matter how much you invest in renos, in many Montreal suburbs, the day you can no longer drive is the day you’re forced to move.
When it comes down to it, there just aren’t that many smaller, affordable, universally accessible units in walkable neighbourhoods in the boroughs, suburbs and exurbs where many seniors have their roots.
As Friedman points out, a large number of Montreal-area boomers live in edge cities and suburban communities on and off the island. In most of these areas, it is unthinkable to live without a car. There are no grocery stores, banks or coffee shops within walking distance. In many bedroom communities, there aren’t even dépanneurs around the corner where you could walk to grab milk or a loaf of bread.
“Those places are not designed to make life easy for seniors,” Friedman said. “The difficult choice for them and their family members begins.”