Experts size up four party leaders

With undecided votes up for grabs, the month ahead is crucial

Maybe he was looking for good karma.

When Coalition Avenir Québec Leader François Legault kicked off his campaign Thursday, he immediately steered his election buses into the Quebec City riding of Louis-Hébert.

Louis-Hébert has symbolic significance for the CAQ, because it was where it clobbered the Liberals last October in a byelection, ending 14 years of their control.

“Think about it,” Legault said that night. “If it is possible to win Louis-Hébert, taking just about all the ridings (in Quebec) is also possible.”

It was the beginning of a shift in the political winds in Quebec, and the Liberals have more or less been on the defensive ever since.

But the 37 days ahead are the real deal. Legault, and the other leaders, Philippe Couillard for the Liberals, Jean-François Lisée for the Parti Québécois and Manon Massé for Québec solidiare, will need more than favourable tea leaves to win the hearts of Quebecers.

As the campaign heads into Week 2, and polls show the vote is still volatile, we analyze and talk to three top political experts who sized up the strengths and weaknesses of the leaders.

PHILIPPE COUILLARD

As veteran political analyst Christian Dufour sees it, Couillard faces the same challenge in 2018 that he did in the 2014 campaign; he is not really well liked by Quebecers.

Couillard, a brain surgeon in his former life, comes across at times as distant — especially within his own caucus — unlike former leader Jean Charest, who had a chummy bond with his MNAs.

But Couillard is studious, highly intelligent and calm, which explains why many people see him as a reliable premier. In other words, the job fits him to a T.

He rises to the occasion, whether representing Quebec internationally or leading the province in a crisis like the 2017 shooting at a Quebec City mosque.

“He’s not what you call a populist politician,” said Bernard Motulsky, an image and communications professor at the Université du Québec à Montréal. “He radiates more reason than emotion.”

To his credit, Couillard in four years put the province on sound financial footing and managed to polish up the Liberal brand, adds Jean-Marc Léger, president of the Léger polling firm.

And unlike the last federal campaign where Quebecers desperately wanted to be rid of Stephen Harper, there is no real animosity toward Couillard, said Léger.

But analysts agree Couillard’s challenge is to find a way to incarnate the change Quebecers crave — and which the CAQ is offering on a silver platter.

Léger says Couillard’s top priority at this early stage of the campaign is to solidify the Liberal base, which right now is bleeding seniors and non-francophones. The Liberals normally poll at 80 per cent among nonfrancophones. That has slipped to 62 per cent, said Léger.

“His base is cracking everywhere,” said Léger.

Couillard has said he knows a government cannot get reelected based just on its past, so it has to offer new things, like last week’s idea of giving children two medicare cards. The Liberal plan is to sell ideas to make ordinary life easier.

But all the analysts say Couillard has lost one tactical advantage in this campaign: the threat of the election of the PQ and sovereignty, which were key factors in the 2014 win.

Léger said the Liberals are using those same kind of arguments to defuse the surging CAQ — saying it is a risky option that will lead to confrontations and squabbling — but it’s not working.

FRANÇOIS LEGAULT

The stakes are high for Legault on this, his third attempt to break the cycle of Liberal-PQ governments by offering a third option. Leading in the polls, Legault finds himself in an enviable but dangerous position because he is the target of attacks from all sides.

He has to find the right tone, expressing his indignation with how things are but without coming across as an angry reformer, which will scare voters. He appeals, in English, directly to minorities saying he will not hold a referendum.

His big boost came with the shelving of the sovereignty debate, says Motulsky, because that “levelled the playing field” between Legault and his opponents.

Suddenly everyone is making promises for families, school kids, seniors, roads, transit.

After four days, the CAQ seems to be in control of the campaign. Legault speaks plainly, and is easy to understand. Polls show he’s the guy most Quebecers would like to have a beer with.

“He has created the image of being a moderate,” said Dufour.

“He’s got the wind in his sails,” said Motulsky. “He seems well prepared and has drawn a great team of candidates.”

But Léger notes that Legault has yet to spark any real enthusiasm for him or his option.

“It’s a rational vote, anti-Liberal, but it’s not yet CAQ votes in the box,” said Léger. “Face it, it’s very hard for an accountant (like Legault) to create emotion. Remember an election starts with reason, but it ends in emotion.”

JEAN-FRANÇOIS LISÉE

This election is not only about the future of Lisée’s leadership, it’s also about the survival of the party. At 18 per cent in the polls, the Qc125 projection site says the PQ could slip from 28 to between five and 10 seats in the legislature.

Léger says Lisée has to find a way to wake up the party’s voters who — bereft of the dream of sovereignty — are sitting on the sidelines feeling indifferent about the PQ, or flirting with the CAQ as a way to oust the Liberals.

The wild card is Lisée himself, said Léger, noting his tendency to charge off on tangents. Jacques Parizeau’s former chief of staff Jean Royer once summed up Lisée this way: “He has 10 ideas a day. The challenge is figuring out which is the right one.”

Motulsky says Lisée has not quite evolved from the intellectual pulling strings in the backroom to a politician.

Dufour notes Lisée’s strongest asset right now is the PQ’s deputy leader, Véronique Hivon, the MNA for Joliette, who consistently gets crowds to their feet with her passionate speeches.

But Lisée, who says he enjoys playing the underdog role, could also be a spoiler in this campaign. Even a small increase in the PQ vote would have a dramatic effect on the standings of others. Keep your eye on him and those PQ baby boomers.

MANON MASSÉ

With her down-to-earth way of talking and no-nonsense style, Massé has already caught the eye of voters because she is so genuine and has good ideas. With nowhere to go but up, Massé can take risks. Her main job is to mobilize Québec solidaire’s base.

Of QS’s 20,000 members, 12,000 live in the regions, so her challenge is to translate that off-island support into seats. The party believes it can make inroads in Sherbrooke and the downtown Quebec City riding of Taschereau.

“Her objective in this campaign is to get herself discovered,” said Motulsky.

“So far she has overcome her initial image, which was that she was a bit strange.

“She’s hard to not like, even when she says things which make no sense,” Dufour said.

He’s not what you call a populist politician