Amid criticism, party president Le Bouyonnec steps down
Philippe Couillard’s Liberals are up, by two percentage points, to 32 per cent, largely because of the Montreal vote coming back to the fold. The city’s voters have apparently ignored the party’s early stumbles over the ousting of Liberal MNA François Ouimet in the Marquette riding.
In fact, Léger vice-president Christian Bourque says that incident and the controversy surrounding new Liberal candidate Gertrude Bourdon — who flirted with several parties before deciding to run for the Liberals — remains a minor blip in the minds of voters.
Bourque warned the increases are within the poll’s margin of error so they should be treated with caution, but said the poll shows the election is still a horse race between the CAQ and the Liberals.
“If the CAQ loses one or two points of their lead, all the scenarios change,” Bourque said. “And at 32 per cent, it would be a mistake to assume the Liberals are beaten.”
Parti Québécois Leader JeanFrançois Lisée, who has been campaigning like his life depends on it, got a bit of good news, too, as his support is up a percentage point, from 18 per cent to 19 per cent.
In the PQ’s case, any move upward is good news. At 18 per cent they risk being reduced to a rump of six MNAs lost in the curtains in the back of the legislature.
Any increase in the PQ vote will hurt the CAQ, because they are considered nationalist voters.
The only party that sees its support slide is the left-wing Québec solidaire. It has plunged by two percentage points, from 10 per cent to eight per cent after only one week on the campaign trail.
It’s loss, particularly in the francophone vote category, appears to be the PQ’s gain, Bourque said.
He said Quebecers still see QS as a marginal political force despite this campaign where they are trying to play in the big leagues with their own campaign bus and slick advertising posters.
What is also surprising is the QS lack of support among youth, which in this election, will represent a third of all voters.
QS has the support of eight per cent of voters in the 18 to 34 category. It is Quebec’s Liberals who are winning here with a solid 35 per cent support. The CAQ trails with 26 per cent and the PQ has 16 per cent.
“This is an entirely new position for the party,” said Bourque. “The Liberals have found a niche by being more open on immigration.”
Legault was recently booed at Concordia University when he tried to defend the party ’s vision of cutting the number of immigrants and making it harder for them to live here.
The demographic flip-flop is complete. The CAQ is attracting the more conservative senior voters who used to support the Liberals with zeal. Léger says in the over-55 category, the CAQ has the support of 38 per cent of voters, compared with 33 per cent for the Liberals.
The CAQ is also beating all the other parties in the women’s vote category. Thirty seven per cent said they would vote CAQ, compared with 33 per cent Liberal.
The Liberals remain weak in the critical francophone only category of voters. Scattered in rural ridings, those votes are critical to win any election because they represent more individual ridings. The Liberal vote is concentrated in a few Montreal ridings.
The CAQ has a comfortable and so far stable advance among these voters with support pegged at 42 per cent. The PQ follows with 23 per cent, while the Liberals have 21 per cent. The Liberals and PQ are up a percentage point each in the category, but that is not enough.
Where CAQ support is down is among non-francophones, despite Legault’s repeated promises to never hold a sovereignty referendum. The Liberals say he is not to be trusted.
“The Liberal improvement is in large part attributable to the return of its traditional vote,” Bourque said.
Bourque added the Liberals’ parade of announcements in the first week seemed to ring true with the level of dissatisfaction in the Couillard government down from 64 per cent in August to 59 per cent now.
Legault is considered the best person to be premier by 26 per cent of the sample, but Couillard is up four percentage points in the same section to 20 per cent.
“There was something about Mr. Couillard’s first week of campaigning that pleased a significant group of voters,” Bourque said. “Mr. Legault is in first place, but it’s been a good first campaign week for Liberals.”
The poll arrived on the same day as Couillard dropped the gloves with Legault, naming him directly in his speeches and saying he is a threat to Quebec’s economy.
But many Quebecers are still indulging in a favourite pastime, which is to vote strategically; in other words for the person with the best chances of winning even if they don’t agree with their ideas.
Forty two per cent think the CAQ will win. Only 24 per cent think the Liberals will win.
While 10 days ago 45 per cent of voters said they will probably change their mind, the number has slipped to 38 per cent.
The CAQ wins the vote for best slogan. Twenty-three per cent says “Maintenant,” is the pithiest.
Léger’s internet survey of 1,010 people was conducted from Aug. 24-28. With this size sample, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.08 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
This is an entirely new position for the party. The Liberals have found a niche by being more open on immigration.