Volatile voters expecting CAQ minority government
Quebecers expect the Oct. 1 election to produce a minority Coalition Avenir Québec government.
That’s one of the secondary takeaways from the Montreal GazetteLe Devoir poll conducted by Léger that you read about in Wednesday’s paper.
Forty-two per cent of respondents expect François Legault’s CAQ to win the election, compared with 24 per cent who think Philippe Couillard and his Liberals will take it. Only four per cent foresee a victory by the Parti Québécois of Jean-François Lisée.
Will it be a minority or a majority government?
Fifty-two per cent said minority and 42 per cent expect a majority. Seven per cent said they didn’t know. More than a third of respondents (38 per cent) said they’re “likely to change their minds.”
The results raise all kinds of questions.
Is it wishful thinking because a minority is the preferred conclusion? Are they getting cold feet after seeing the CAQ surge in the polls? Will they vote strategically to tighten the reins on the CAQ? Or did voters simply answer this way because they think it’s a tight race?
A Qc125.com analysis of other recent polls found the CAQ was on the road to a comfortable majority government. The latest Léger poll found the CAQ continues to lead the pack, but the Liberals are still in the game.
It comes as the CAQ suffers its first setbacks of the campaign. Stéphane Le Bouyonnec — the party ’s president, a candidate in La Prairie and one of the CAQ’s founders — resigned suddenly. Then it emerged that party stalwart Éric Caire had quietly repaid a $55,000 loan from the mayor of a town in his riding after the province’s ethics watchdog raised a red flag in the spring.
DECIPHERING THE PARTY SLOGANS
Three out of the four main politi- cal parties are going with minimalist election slogans.
CAQ: Maintenant (Now), as in, we’ve never formed a government, but we’re ready to run the province at this very moment.
Liberals: Pour faciliter la vie des Québécois (To make life easier for Quebecers), as in, our austerity measures made life miserable in the first years of our mandate, but that’s behind us.
PQ: Sérieusement (Seriously), as in, we’ve struggled in recent years and we’re in third place, but we’re a genuine option, really.
Québec solidaire: Populaires (Popular), as in, look over here — we’re the only ones in touch with the common people and we’re wellliked.
In the Gazette-Le Devoir survey by Léger, respondents were asked what they thought about the slogans. The CAQ’s succinct motto tied with the Liberal’s six-word mouthful, with each favoured by 21 per cent of respondents. The voters polled did not take the PQ slogan seriously (10 per cent liked it best), while the QS catchword was the least popular (four per cent favoured it).