Gazette/Le Devoir poll shows Liberals slipping

Midway through the election campaign, Quebec’s Liberals are getting no fresh traction with voters while the Coalition Avenir Québec appears to be stuck on a rung trying to climb the ladder to power for the first time ever, a new poll suggests.

In fact, Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard’s troops have slipped back to where they were at the start of the campaign.

Aside from the small bump the party got from the return of the lost sheep in the non-francophone community two weeks ago, the party lead by Philippe Couillard is mired in second place behind the CAQ instead of showing signs it still has fire in the belly.

The poll shows the vote is still highly volatile with 38 per cent saying they could change their mind, a statistic that puts more pressure on the four leaders as they head into the first of three televised debates this week.

A full 44 per cent of voters say the debates could prompt them to change their vote.

Produced by Léger for the Montreal Gazette and Le Devoir, the poll shows that with 21 days left to go in the campaign, the Liberals are going in the wrong direction. Rather than picking up steam in the stretch as they have in the past, the Liberals have slipped three percentage points, from 32 per cent two weeks ago to 29 per cent in voter intentions, after redistribution of the undecided vote.

François Legault’s CAQ team is also down two percentage points, from 37 per cent in an August Léger poll to 35 per cent, but still within the range necessary to form a majority government with Legault as premier. Its 42 per cent support among francophones the CAQ had in the Aug. 29 poll remains unchanged.

Pollsters said this exercise did not really measure the full impact of Legault’s decision to play up the language and identity issues last week.

The Liberals excel among nonfrancophones (70 per cent) but that vote is concentrated on the Montreal island so it represents few actual ridings.

The CAQ has slipped dramatically in the non-francophone vote, from 17 per cent in August to 11 per cent today. Legault admitted Saturday that he has failed to woo anglophone and allophone voters.

The Parti Québécois and Québec solidaire, meanwhile, have something to smile about in the battle for Quebec. Despite recent problems with its candidates, support for the PQ has crept up two points, to 21 per cent, while Québec solidaire’s share moved from eight to 11 per cent.

QS’s growth is coming from youth, 18-34. In August it had eight per cent in the category and now it has 18 per cent. The Liberals and CAQ are now tied in the youth vote (28 per cent).

Having cracked the 20 per cent level of support, the PQ is back in the electoral sweet spot, out of danger of losing official recognition in the legislature. On the other hand, the PQ’s vote remains very fragile with nearly half (46 per cent) of people who say they plan to vote PQ also saying they could change their mind.

The PQ places second on the question of which party is running the best campaign. The winner in that category is the CAQ. Legault is also judged the best person to be premier (26 per cent), well ahead of Couillard (18 per cent).

Using the simulator on the too close to call website, Léger’s numbers would result in a slim CAQ majority government. The CAQ would have 65 seats compared to 39 for the Liberals, 16 for the PQ and five for QS. You need 63 seats to form a majority government.

Léger does not do such projections, which remain theoretical at best, on its own.

“It’s more bad news for the Liberals,” said Léger vice-president Christian Bourque, adding all the movement in the poll remains within the statistical margin of error so the numbers should be viewed cautiously. “The CAQ has been under attack from all sides for the past week and they seem to be surviving.

“The Liberals are back down where they were before the election started.”

Almost unchanged since the last Léger poll for the two dailies in August is Quebecers’ expectations about the election. Forty-three per cent of respondents think the CAQ will win Oct. 1; 24 per cent think the Liberals will win. Only seven per cent think the PQ will win.

The drop in CAQ support and rise of the PQ explains why Legault — likely informed of the trend by the party’s own internal polls — this weekend started to talk about the idea of strategic voting, Bourque said.

He knows the battle raging now is over francophone nationalist votes who are buzzing between the PQ and the CAQ, uncertain which flower to land on. The PQ’s gains, in this poll, came at the expense of the CAQ.

The poll, however, shows the CAQ remains the second choice of 39 per cent of PQ voters, which explains the harsh words between Legault and Lisée lately.

“Everything is still in play,” Bourque said. “We are a percentage point or two of a minority scenario,

so it’s still a right race.”

On the campaign trail Monday, Legault admitted his party is not moving forward in the race as much as he would like.

“Honestly, I figured the gap would close,” he said.

“With three adversaries throwing mud at us day in, day out, some is bound to stick. What’s important for me is peaking on Thursday. We started five points ahead in the polls and we’re still five points ahead.”

This Thursday’s debate will be broadcast on Radio-Canada, TéléQuébec and V starting at 8 p.m. An English debate will take place Sept. 17 followed by another French debate, on TVA, Sept. 20.

The Léger poll shows 52 per cent of Quebecers, including 41 per cent of non-francophones, intend to tune in to the French debate. Nineteen per cent believe Legault will win the debate, 18 per cent Couillard, 16 per cent Lisée and seven per cent Massé.

While 44 per cent say the debate might influence their vote, 49 per cent say it won’t.

The Léger internet poll of 1,014 voters was conducted from Sept. 7-10. A vote sample this size would has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.08 per cent 19 times out of 20.