A NAFTA DEAL BY ANY OTHER NAME

Not long after he took office, U.S. President Donald Trump assured Canada that, for all of his pillorying of NAFTA during the election campaign, the Canada-U.S. part of the trade relationship was merely in need of tweaks.

Little more than 18 months later, that is what has happened — but only thanks to steadfast negotiating on the Canadian side that has largely spared this country a host of harsher, even catastrophic, provisions that the Trump administration had tried to bully Canada into accepting.

While the fine-print details have yet to be analyzed fully, it appears that Canada emerged with dispute-resolution provisions largely intact, avoided a draconian sunset clause, maintained an exemption for cultural industries and allowed only a modest erosion of the supply-management system. It also won a provision setting tariff-free entry of cars and automotive parts above current levels, which will make it harder for any U.S. government to hold this country’s automotive sector hostage in the future. Not that any U.S. administration would ever do that, of course. Except, ahem, for the present one, which wielded the threat of protectionist measures against the auto sector as a club in the recent negotiations.

Still, Trump will be able to crow victory. He can tell American dairy farmers he has increased their access to the Canadian market. And he can tell his base that he got the United States out of NAFTA — “the worst trade deal ever made.” Never mind that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is similar to the original NAFTA.

A rose by any other name … (And it’s hard to imagine patriotic Americans could ever oppose something that sounds a lot like USMC, United States Marine Corps.)

Canadian dairy farmers are angry. But they should be grateful that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised them full compensation. An end to supply management is overdue, for the sake of Canadian consumers.

Meanwhile, the punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum levied last spring on spurious and insulting “national security” grounds remain in place — this was not directly part of the NAFTA negotiation — though perhaps now the Americans will see less value in holding onto bargaining chips that boomerang on their own economy by increasing the price of inputs to U.S. manufacturers.

As Canadians have learned to our discomfort from the long-running softwood-lumber dispute, though, neither a free trade deal nor dispute-resolution mechanisms offer sufficient protection when the Americans decide to settle a particular dispute in the alley. Still, a good enough deal is better than no deal. And, even if not all of the USMCA details are yet known, this definitely appears to be a good enough deal.

This has been a rough ride, with Canada unfairly targeted by an administration that did not seem to realize that South Park’s barbs against Canada were meant to be ridiculous, and did not shy away from spewing personal insults against our leaders.

Now, this country and its leaders appear to be back in the mercurial U.S. president’s good books.

The Trudeau government, and not least Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland, deserve enormous credit for their eventempered resolve. The United States remains our most important trading partner, and will be for the foreseeable future. Still, this episode provides an object lesson of the need to do everything possible to diversify Canada’s export markets.