PUT UP POINTS AND FORGET THE REST
Correlation between wins in the NFL and offensive prowess more acute than ever
That old football saying that you win games with offence, but championships with defence? Yeah, it’s gone with the wins.
It’s not that defence doesn’t matter in the NFL anymore. It’s just that offence matters so much more. Want to build a winning NFL franchise these days and in years to come? Then building a great offence must be your No. 1 priority. The league has been trending in this direction since 2010, to the point that in 2018 you can’t be considered a great team without an explosive offence. You can’t even be competitive without an above-average offence. That means you must (a) have a good-to-great quarterback, (b) surround him with good playmakers at receiver and running back behind an able offensive line, and (c) employ clever schemes in both the pass and run, custom-built around your good-to-great quarterback’s talents. That’s how Kansas City, New Orleans, New England, the Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers are doing it. All six of those teams rank at, or near, the top in most pertinent offensive categories, including top 10 in total offence. But not one of them ranks in the top 10 in total defence. Of course, it all starts with the quarterback. You can max out in ( b) and (c) above — as was the case last year in Kansas City — but your quarterback cannot be a liability. He cannot hold you back. Otherwise you, at best, can only flicker greatness on offence, not shine it brightly most of the time. Any NFL franchise that refuses to embrace this top-down philosophy — of prioritizing the scoring of as many points as possible — is living in the past, and doomed to failure. Now, you can’t field a defence that’s completely horrible, one so porous it can’t even stop an ant. For proof, see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who offensively rank No. 2 in total yards per game (447), but turn the ball over way too much and, just as ruinously, rank last defensively in scoring, allowing 34 points per game. Such exceptions aside, the top four NFL teams in scoring offence are Kansas City (36 points scored per game), New Orleans (35), the L.A. Rams (33) and New England (30). Their combined record through Sunday is 30-5. In contrast, the top four teams in total defence are Baltimore (305 total yards allowed per game), Jacksonville (313), Buffalo (314) and Dallas (314). Their combined record through Sunday: 12-21. All four had losing records before the Cowboys played the Tennessee Titans in the Monday nighter. Maybe not the Cowboys, but the Ravens, Jaguars and Bills all have been constructed to win with defence first. Where is it getting them? Those days are gone. They need to join the new club. Fast. Or they’ll be further left behind in what clearly has become the dawning in 2018 of the golden age of NFL offence. An NFL Network report Sunday morning said John Harbaugh’s tenure as head coach of the Baltimore Ravens could be in immediate jeopardy. After losing at home 23-16 to the Ravens’ archrivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, Harbaugh retained his job through the night Sunday, and into Monday afternoon. Harbaugh has been the Ravens’ head coach for 11 seasons. He won the franchise’s second Super Bowl in the 2012 season when then fifth-year quarterback Joe Flacco performed at a spectacularly high level. But Baltimore has made the playoffs only once since, in 2014. And after a promising 3-1 start this year that included a 26-14 thumping of the Steelers in Pittsburgh, the Ravens have lost four of five. Owner Steve Bisciotti is reportedly frustrated and impatient. The locals, too. Empty seats now stare at Bisciotti at M&T Bank Stadium for non-Steelers home games. It would be very un-Ravens-like to fire a head coach in mid-season, especially one who has won a Super Bowl. And the toughest portion of a difficult 2018 schedule is behind the Ravens. Harbaugh should be allowed to finish the season. A wild-card playoff berth is not only possible, but a good bet. Then, with Baltimore’s NFL-best defence, who knows after that? Go about starting over (again) on offence next year. Because the man more responsible than anyone for Baltimore’s recent playoff drought is not Harbaugh but the under-performing Flacco.