CRACKS IN HABS’ DEFENCE RUN DEEP
Poor play and lack of established talent on blue-line to blame, Marc Dumont writes.
After an incredibly strong start to the season, clear deficiencies are starting to become evident in the Canadiens’ defence. And while most of the focus has been on Carey Price’s play in nets, which has been subpar, it’s the blue line that has struggled the most in recent weeks. Noah Juulsen’s recent injury hasn’t helped, nor has the absence of top defenceman Shea Weber, and the team has had to deal with a heavy workload — Saturday’s home game against Boston will mark the Canadiens’ seventh game in 12 days — but these are factors every NHL team eventually faces. The Canadiens went from one of the better defensive teams in the league during the first month of the season to one of the worst. In October, the Canadiens were allowing 52.6 shot attempts and 27.7 shots on net against per game. That has ballooned to almost 60 shot attempts and 34 shots against per game (see Defensive Numbers chart). To put the downtick in performance in context, the Canadiens allowed the sixth-fewest shot attempts and the sixth-fewest shots against in the NHL in October. In November, they’ve allowed the ninth-most shot attempts and fifth-most shots against in the NHL. That staggering discrepancy has resulted in an influx of goals against as well as a rise in high-danger goals against (see Goals Against chart). In October, the Canadiens allowed the sixth-fewest goals against and high-danger goals against, which correlates directly with how many shots they allowed. In November, the team has surrendered the second-most goals against and the most high-danger goals against in the league, which is a staggering decline in defensive efficiency. Consequently, the Canadiens went from having the sixth-best team save percentage to the worst in the NHL in November. Beyond the statistics, the last few weeks have seen a deluge of odd-man rushes allowed by the defence. In every game, there have been a half-dozen or more two-on-one rushes caused by either poor defensive positioning, weak gap control, or a lack of support from the forwards. The defence is getting caught up the ice quite often, while the forwards have failed to cover for pinches. Because the Canadiens’ offensive strategy counts on a quick transition game, the forwards need to do a much better job when it comes to analyzing the situation and contributing defensively. However, we shouldn’t be particularly surprised by the results so far in November. The fact is the Canadiens overachieved in October, while the results this month are a little closer to what most experts projected. And that’s fine. The Canadiens aren’t ready to compete for a Stanley Cup yet. Despite their early-season success, they are in a transitional phase. The Habs are still earning points, thanks to an unexpected increase in offence, but it’s not enough to mask the defensive problems. Those defensive issues have occurred because of poor play coupled with a lack of established talent on the blue line. As was the case last season, defenders are being asked to play roles that aren’t conducive to their success. It’s reasonable to expect one or two defenders to exceed projections, but it’s unreasonable to expect every blue-liner to perform at a level that they’ve never achieved in the NHL. Until defence prospects like Cale Fleury, Josh Brook, Scott Walford and Alexander Romanov are ready to join the team, the Canadiens are likely to continue to allow a plethora of goals, regardless of who is guarding their net. The team, and the defence in particular, is a work-in-progress. The hot start elevated the expectations for the Canadiens from an all-time low, to much higher than they should be. That the Canadiens are still involved in the playoff race at the quarter mark of the season is impressive, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the big picture. This is a team that has clear problems on defence, particularly on the left side. If every pairing contains one player who is asked to overachieve on a nightly basis, you’re bound to see an increase in defensive miscues. Weber’s impending return to play will definitely help, but it will take more than Weber to rectify the many defensive issues. Marc Dumont is an analyst and editor for The Athletic Montreal. (All stats five-on-five, courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com)
The Canadiens went from having the sixth-best team save percentage to the worst in the NHL in November.