Stage is set for Shea Weber’s return
Canadiens survive first 24 games without their leader, and could thrive with him back
The Canadiens are clearly running on fumes and badly in need of a towering, shutdown defenceman
Timing, they say, is everything — and the timing for Shea Weber’s return to the Canadiens’ lineup is impeccable. If all goes according to plan and the captain makes his comeback Tuesday evening against the Carolina Hurricanes, the stage is set for Weber to step into the breach at the perfect time, with this young team in the throes of a four-game losing streak. Going into the season, a lot of people expected the Canadiens to be in the Jack Hughes sweepstakes, fighting for the bottom spot in the league and the first pick in the draft. I was more optimistic: I thought if they could tread water and remain within two or three games of .500 until Weber’s return, they might conceivably be on the playoff bubble come spring. Instead, they are three games over .500 and clinging to the final wild card spot in the east at this extremely early date in the season. Now, Weber is coming back at a point when, after salvaging a single point out of winnable back-to-back games against Buffalo and Boston on Friday and Saturday, the Canadiens are clearly running on fumes and badly in need of a towering, shutdown defenceman. They need the Man Mountain everywhere on the ice, but Weber has been missed most where it matters most, in the final minutes of tight games. The Canadiens have left far too many points on the table, especially on the road, in games where they were up a goal or tied and had to settle for a single point in overtime or a straight loss and no points at all. A 4-3 overtime loss in Ottawa on Oct. 20, 4-3 in Buffalo on Oct. 25, 6-5 at home to Buffalo on Nov. 10 and three of the four losses in the current streak could all conceivably have been in the win column with Weber in the lineup. During his one healthy season with the Canadiens, Weber was a plus-20 with 17 goals and 25 assists while playing a shade over 25 minutes a game. From his sheer presence to the looming physical threat and the booming shot, Weber contributes so much everywhere on the ice. But it’s his ability as a shutdown defenceman the Canadiens need most. Those late goals the club is surrendering are killers, both in the standings and to morale. No one will be happier to see the big guy back in the lineup than goalies Carey Price and Antti Niemi, who have both been inconsistent in cleaning up the inevitable mistakes made by the young defence. There may be rust. Weber has been sidelined for almost a year and before that, he was trying to play with a fractured foot — and still somehow put up six goals and 10 assists in 26 games while playing 25 minutes and 21 seconds a game, slightly more than the previous season when he was healthy. It’s important not to expect too much immediately. The absence of a player like Weber is felt throughout the lineup. Subtract a player of his calibre and you set off a chain reaction: each defenceman behind him has to step up a notch, often beyond that player’s abilities. When you try to gauge Weber’s impact, the domino effect means you have to look far beyond his numbers. Jeff Petry has done an admirable job of filling in as the team’s No. 1 defenceman in Weber’s absence, especially at the offensive end of the ice. (At the risk of offending the Kool-Aid Krowd, we’ll mention Petry has two goals and 15 assists to date, compared with P.K. Subban’s two goals and 10 assists with Nashville. But I digress.) If you have the luxury of using Petry on your second defence pairing, the effect ripples down the lineup and even affects the forwards, who have less to worry about with Weber back there. More than anything, you know Weber is going to be back there in these tight, tough late-game situations when the Canadiens have been blowing it with some regularity. Imagine the glare from “Dad” if Max Domi or Jonathan Drouin decide it’s a good time for a brain-cramp penalty with the game on the line. In the long run, Weber’s absence through the first quarter of this season may have been a good thing. The Canadiens learned a lot about themselves, about what they are, about the team they have. They showed they can win without their leader and now they have a chance to win with him. And Weber, who has sometimes looked worn down come playoff time, has avoided 24 games, more than a quarter-season of wear and tear. He’s going to be fresh, a tower of power where Claude Julien’s charges need it most. The trade for Subban was a good trade, no matter what you think. It’s hard to prove when one of the principals is out of the lineup for nearly a year — but now we’re about to see why Marc Bergevin was wise to go out and get Weber in the first place.