SHAW LIGHTS FIRE ON CANADIENS’ TOP LINE
The Montreal Canadiens’ excellent duo of Jonathan Drouin and Max Domi has received a lot of praise recently, and rightfully so, because they’ve been producing at an impressive rate and have been the team’s main source of offence in most games. They have speed, creativity and talent to burn. But they were missing one key element on the line to really propel them among the NHL’s elite. We simply can’t ignore the contributions by the most recent addition, Andrew Shaw. He’s turned a line that was overachieving into a trio that is creating a sustainable impact for the Canadiens. Prior to joining that line on Nov. 8 against the Buffalo Sabres, Domi and Drouin were getting outshot and out-chanced during their shifts, indicating that despite their offensive flair, they were due for a major regression in production. They were scoring a decent amount of goals, but the underlying numbers didn’t indicate they could keep up their torrid pace. But since Shaw’s arrival, the line has started controlling the majority of the shots, goals and high-danger goals. They’ve also improved their share of the high-danger shots. Shaw’s role on the line shouldn’t be underestimated. Beyond the numbers, he provides a physical presence that is actually conducive to scoring goals. What I mean by that is Shaw has the pace to not only keep up with Drouin and Domi, but he can actually hit players while they’re still in control of the puck, which creates turnovers in key areas. In most cases, hitting a player results in little to no immediate advantages for the team doing the hitting, because the player getting hit has already moved the puck. That’s not always the case when Shaw hits. He’s fast enough to get there prior to the puck leaving the zone. Shaw is also channelling his inner Brendan Gallagher by providing screens during most shifts, making life hell on opposing defenders and goaltenders. Not only does this frustrate his opponents, it also opens up ice for his teammates. Simply put, the Domi-Drouin combination had potential, but was on a downward trend and headed for a major regression before Shaw joined their line. And since his arrival on the top line, all three players have increased their production by a significant margin (see chart). Shaw and Domi have seen a healthy uptick in their production, but it’s Drouin who has enjoyed the most significant increase, scoring nearly two additional points per 60 since the line was changed in November. As it stands, all three players are on pace for career seasons. Domi’s best statistics came during his rookie season with the Arizona Coyotes in 2015-16, when he had 18 goals and 34 assists for 52 points. He’s on pace this season for 38 goals and 50 assists. Drouin’s best season was with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2016-17, when he had 21 goals and 32 assists for 53 points. He’s on pace this season for 29 goals and 44 assists. Shaw is on pace to surpass his previous season-high of 20 goals, 19 assists and 39 points (set with the Chicago Blackhawks in 201314), with a pace of 23 goals and 26 assists. And if he keeps up his pace alongside Domi and Drouin, he should be able to crack the 60-point mark. Of course, it’s a long season and these numbers can change quickly. Injuries, scoring slumps, roster changes and other factors are inevitable. There’s also the issue of Domi and Drouin’s even-strength shooting percentage, which has predictably fallen in recent weeks, but still remains somewhat higher than their career average. But for the time being, that line is not only scoring, but they’re doing it with sustainable underlying numbers, which puts the fear of inevitable regression on the back burner. And they owe a lot of their success to their new linemate, Andrew Shaw.