Habs’ Price voted best goalie in NHL by players
Montreal playing better but Columbus has easy schedule, writes Marc Dumont
With only nine games left in the Montreal Canadiens’ regular season, the race for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference is shaping up to be a wild one.
The Canadiens find themselves chasing the Columbus Blue Jackets, who hold a one-point edge, with neither team possessing a game in hand over their playoff rivals.
Most playoff models project the Canadiens’ playoff odds at just over 30 per cent, which is more of an indication of the remaining strength of schedule than their performances this season. Only three of the remaining nine opponents the Blue Jackets will face are in a playoff position, while the Canadiens will face only two teams that are not among the top eight in their respective conferences.
The Canadiens also end the season with a murderer’s row of opponents, including one of the best teams in modern history, the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals. The Blue Jackets end the season by facing one of the worst teams in modern history, the Ottawa Senators, as well as a bottom-five team in the New York Rangers.
The chips seem to be stacked against the Canadiens, especially considering the NHL’s three-point system gives away points like candy, rendering any attempt to climb the standings that much more difficult.
But there’s a silver lining for Canadiens fans. Or rather, a dark cloud hanging over the Blue Jackets. Throughout the season, the Canadiens have been much better than Columbus at controlling 5-on-5 shot attempts, high-danger scoring chances and goals for (see 2018-19 chart).
The Blue Jackets have been nothing if not average when it comes to 5-on-5 play in 2018-19.
If we filter the results of their play following the Feb. 25 NHL trade deadline, both teams have struggled. But the Blue Jackets mortgaged their future by dealing a large package of draft picks and prospects to acquire centre Matt Duchene, forward Ryan Dzingel, defenceman Adam McQuaid and goalie Keith Kinkaid for an opportunity to make the playoffs — and it’s it’s fair to say their results have been very underwhelming (see postdeadline chart).
Columbus has been outshot and out-chanced on a regular basis. The Blue Jackets also have scored only 15 5-on-5 goals since late February, the third-worst total in the NHL.
Both teams have terrible power plays, and both have received decent goaltending, though the Canadiens hold the edge in overall save percentage this season.
In reality, it’s less a race to the playoffs and more a case of which ship will ride the tide and eventually limp to shore for repairs.
Some might say that regardless of where the Canadiens finish, this season should be considered a success because the team has played well above expectations. And while I understand the logic behind that statement, and even agree with parts of the argument, there’s no denying that the two star players on the Habs’ blue line, Jeff Petry and Shea Weber, aren’t getting any younger. Statistically speaking, they’re on the decline. The same can be said for Carey Price.
This team isn’t built to win a Stanley Cup this season, but giving the young forwards and the aging defence a taste of the playoffs is worth dropping one or two spots at the draft. If the goal is to eventually turn the Canadiens into a legitimate Cup contender, the first step is getting an invitation to the big dance and establishing a culture of winning.
Currently, the baseline for making the playoffs is roughly 95 points in the Eastern Conference. However, the Blue Jackets hold a 36-33 edge in regulation and overtime wins, and hold the tiebreaker advantage.
Realistically, the Canadiens will need to win at least six of their remaining nine games to earn the opportunity to be swept in four games by the Lightning — seven wins to earn a playoff berth comfortably.
Montreal has a clear advantage with their ability to control games and the Blue Jackets definitely have a much easier situation when it comes to the strength of their remaining schedule.
But the Canadiens’ ace in the hole is how poorly the Blue Jackets have played since selling the farm at the trade deadline, a strategy the Canadiens wisely avoided.
Marc Dumont is an analyst and editor for The Athletic Montreal. (All statistics are via NaturalStatTrick.com and 5-on-5 unless otherwise specified.)