Premier Legault trumpets strategy of herd immunity
It ‘does not mean we are going to use children as guinea pigs’
It may sound frightening, but once Quebecers understand the concept of herd immunity they will see it is the best way out of the current pandemic, Premier François Legault said Thursday.
Moving to prepare citizens for what lies ahead when the lockdown is gradually phased out, Legault said allowing large numbers of non-vulnerable people to get the virus “naturally” is Quebec’s best defence against a second, perhaps worse, wave that could overwhelm the hospital system.
“The concept of natural immunization does not mean we are going to use children as guinea pigs,” Legault said at his Thursday briefing. “What we are saying is people who are less at risk, people who are under 60, can get a natural immunization and impede the wave.”
Legault’s remarks immediately sparked a heated debate on social media with some participants saying the province is playing with fire.
But Legault noted 97 per cent of Quebec’s deaths have been people over 60. Of the 109 new deaths in the last 24 hours in Quebec, 93 were in seniors’ residences.
“When we better understand the concept of natural immunization, the idea of gradually reopening (Quebec) becomes less scary,” Legault said. “It even becomes desirable.”
Noting a vaccine against the virus could be a year or two away, he said it’s not realistic to think Quebec can spend all that time locked down.
The worse thing Quebec could do is allow everyone out from confinement in bulk in September, he said. The idea is to go slowly and let people less at risk develop antibodies.
“If we did a big poll or a referendum, I doubt Quebecers would feel like (staying confined) for two years because it could be that long before we have a vaccine,” Legault said. “So we need natural immunization, but gradually ... at the same time as protecting the most vulnerable.”
Horacio Arruda, Quebec’s director of public health, estimated Quebec’s current rate of infection is low, between five and 10 per cent, probably higher in Montreal and Laval where the bulk of Quebec’s COVID -19 cases are clustered.
To establish a “certain mass immunity,” between 60 and 80 per cent of Quebecers would have to develop the antibodies, he said.
“So first, we open and see how it emerges in the population,” Arruda said. “So we will test ... certain groups of the population to try to document the rate of transmission.”
According to the government’s own health literature, 80 per cent of people who get COVID-19 recover naturally with no particular treatment. But as Quebec has seen, the disease can be very serious for older people or people with pre-existing conditions such as respiratory issues.
The herd immunity idea is controversial even in epidemiology circles, but is often considered the lesser of two evils.
“The minute we stop the current confinement, the virus will spread more and we will see an increase in the number of cases, hospital and ICU admissions,” Ste-justine Hospital medical microbiologist and epidemiologist Dr. Caroline Quach said in an interview.
“But the goal is to control the spread so our health-care capacity is not overwhelmed. Since 80 to 90 per cent of the population will have mild disease, it is a possible thing to do.”
There was some positive reaction to the premier’s pitch. L’association des pédiatres du Québec issued a statement saying it is in favour of a gradual lifting of the lockdown for children.
“The scientific community agrees on one point,” the statement said. “COVID-19 is not dangerous for the vast majority of the pediatric population.”
It added the negative effects of a prolonged confinement of children would probably be worse.
Legault, however, stressed the easing of the restrictions will not start next week. When it does, Arruda will recommend citizens wear masks, including homemade ones, while using public transit.
People with symptoms have a moral obligation to stay home, he said.
In the meantime, Quebec is still trying to get the catastrophe in public and private seniors’ residences under control. Even with the arrival of the army, the lack of helping hands to care for the elderly remains the problem.
Legault revealed that 9,500 health-care workers are currently not showing up for work, including 5,550 who have tested negative. In the last 24 hours alone, 800 more employees have said they can’t or won’t work.
He issued a plea for healthy workers to reconsider because the whole system is threatened.
“Please come back to help us,” Legault said.
“We need you. I am appealing to you. The system can’t work with 9,500 people absent.”