The curve is flattening, new modelling shows
NEW MODELLING SHOWS CURVE FLATTENING, BUT UP TO 3,883 DEATHS BY NEXT WEEK
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said new projections for the spread of COVID-19 suggest Canada is well past the worst of the pandemic, even as modelling showed a spike in the death toll compared with earlier estimates.
The fatality rate from the virus has increased from 2.2 per cent to 5.5 per cent since Ottawa released its initial projections on April 9, largely due to higher-than-expected death rates at senior and long-term care facilities.
Of the 2,707 deaths in Canada, almost 80% have occurred in such senior care homes, new data show. The government forecasts a total of between 3,227 and 3,883 deaths by May 5.
The Public Health Agency of Canada’s updated modelling shows a continued decline in the rate of new infections, largely due to social distancing measures and economic restrictions aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus. The new data comes as Ottawa and the provinces agree to a set of loose guidelines that must be met before health restrictions are lifted.
Trudeau remained cautious on Tuesday about whether Canada could soon reopen its stalled economy. The Liberal government is under pressure from some provinces to pry open certain segments of the economy, over worries that the economic shock from the coronavirus could outweigh any health risks.
Around seven million Canadians are unemployed as a result of the pandemic and Ottawa is expected to run a $184-billion deficit in an effort to stabilize the Canadian economy.
Trudeau has cautioned against a patchy reopening, saying that an unco-ordinated response could trigger new waves of viral spread.
“The measures we’ve taken so far are working,” Trudeau said Tuesday. “In many parts of the country, the curve has flattened. (But) if we lift measures too quickly, we might lose the progress we’ve made.”
Health Canada officials said Canada’s epidemic growth is slowing, with new cases doubling every 16 days, compared with a doubling every three days early in the pandemic.
Total cases of COVID-19 across Canada could reach 66,835 by May 5 according to the worst-case projections, or as low as 53,196 in the best-case scenario, according to government data.
The death toll is far higher than an earlier government estimate that projected between 500 and 700 deaths by April 16 because of the spike in senior and long-term care facilities. Senior care deaths were particularly high in Quebec, Ontario and Nova Scotia.
“We are seeing the tragic paradox of the epidemic playing out,” said Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer. “As the epidemic comes under control, and the growth of cases slows, the severe outcomes and deaths continue to accrue, as COVID-19 takes a heavy toll among highly susceptible populations.”
“This is absolutely still a marathon,” she said, adding that some form of health restrictions will remain in place for months. Removing those restrictions too quickly could produce another wave of outbreaks that would mark a “massive setback to the gains we’ve already had,” she said.
“It is a very delicate balance that we all have to manage very well.”
Tam said 740,000 tests have been carried out across Canada so far, with about 20,000 people getting tested daily. Seven per cent have tested positive.
Even with strong controls in place, the Public Health Agency of Canada projects anywhere from one to 10 per cent of the Canadian population could eventually be infected with COVID-19, or as many as 3.7 million people. An infection rate of 10 per cent would translate into roughly 44,000 deaths.
With no social-economic controls or social distancing measures in place, by comparison, as many as 80 per cent of the population, or 30 million people, could be infected, leading to around 355,000 deaths, according to federal models.
Tam says the new models are planning tools that allow illness rates to be forecasted in the short term, and allow public health measures to be adjusted.
Federal officials have long cautioned that a return to economic normalcy will be a slow process. Among other things, it will depend on capacity for testing and tracing coronavirus infections and ensuring that workers are safe on the job.
“Controlling transmission is key,” Trudeau said on Tuesday. “Restarting our economy will be gradual and careful and will be guided by science.”
While work continues in Canada and around the world on finding a COVID-19 vaccine, a new Leger poll for the Association for Canadian Studies finds 60 per cent of Canadians believe inoculation, once available, should be mandatory, while the rest think it should be voluntary.
Trudeau said it was far too early to discuss the issue of whether everyone should have to get a shot. “We are still unfortunately a long way from having a vaccine,” Trudeau said. “As far as the protocols are concerned, we still have a fair bit of time to reflect on that.”
RESTARTING OUR ECONOMY WILL BE GRADUAL … AND WILL BE GUIDED BY SCIENCE.