WHAT IS MONTREAL’S PANDEMIC FUTURE?

Now that COVID-19 is in retreat in Montreal, what does the future hold for the city? History and recent surges in places like Arizona and Florida warn of the dangers of a second wave that could be worse than the first.

Although the pandemic infiltrated hundreds of seniors’ residences, many were left untouched or virtually unscathed, meaning there is still “a high proportion of the elderly population that is susceptible,” Université Laval epidemiologist Marc Brisson said.

“What I’m hopeful for is that we’ve learned we really have to make immense efforts into protecting closed environments where there are elderly people.”

The reopening of restaurants and other public venues and the possibility of “super-spreader events” are fuelling fears of new outbreaks. But evidence from European countries that have deconfined carefully over the last month are promising, noted Benoit Mâsse, a Université de Montréal epidemiologist with Ste-justine Hospital’s research centre.

“The real challenge is when we move back indoors in the fall,” he said. “Particularly since we are getting into the habit of being social again.”

Our grim experience as a pandemic epicentre could serve as a type of blessing, hopefully making Montrealers more open to protective measures in the event of a second surge, Mâsse said.

If that occurs, the key will be how well officials can carry out rapid contact tracing in order to shut it down quickly, said Brian Kaiser, an epidemiologist with Montreal’s public health department.

“To avoid having a large second wave, or a large increase in cases in the next weeks as we’ve opened up economic and social sectors, it comes back to prospective and rapid contact tracing and case isolations,” he said.

At the same time, authorities need to do better at informing the infected on how to properly self-isolate, and provide them the means to do so.

“We need to be able to support people in terms of food security, particularly for single-parent families,” he said.

Just providing masks can also make a big difference, Kaiser said.