A DEMAGOGUE NOT A MESSIAH
Saturday evening’s Ford Fest Etobicoke was an effort to show that the “Ford” in Ford Nation doesn’t necessarily have to be Rob. Matt Gurney, Chris Selley and NOW’s Jonathan Goldsbie consider the mayor’s cult of personality and whether it could be transferable.
Goldsbie In considering the dynamics of this year’s election, I’ve often attempted to explain that while Olivia Chow and John Tory have their passionate supporters, Rob Ford has an army of believers, some of whom would die for him. And the more Ford events I’ve attended, the less that’s seemed like hyperbole. Even following Saturday’s comparatively restrained shindig just off a north Etobicoke Sears outlet parking lot, I have no doubt that this devotion persists. The problem, from the Fords’ perspective, is that it largely remains bound up with Rob — and Doug’s the one now running for mayor. Among this crowd, Doug is certainly well liked; they’re thrilled to see him, speak with him, pose for photos. But he doesn’t appear to transcend conventional populism. He is a demagogue like any other, not a pseudo-messianic leader. Rob’s talent was his ability to evoke both love and anger in his supporters. Doug, a less outwardly compassionate person in general, can only channel the anger. How far can a person get with rage-based politics? Gurney About a quarter of the vote, or so, according to the latest polls. I took some flak a couple of weeks ago when I referred to Rob Ford’s special kind of political magic. But it’s something I stand by. Rob Ford has it; Doug Ford does not. Doug will benefit from that positive association that you referred to. And certainly Rob Ford’s audio endorsement message, plus his brief visit at Ford Fest, is meant to shore up his brother’s support. But you can’t transfer over weird charisma or that buffoonish charm. A friend of mine recently suggested Doug Ford’s entire candidacy was a kind of kamikaze campaign: really only capable of causing damage to others rather than any constructive good of its own. It doesn’t have to be that way. But if Doug’s early forays into campaigning are any indication, that’s pretty much what we are going to have. An angry guy fighting a campaign that is essentially an Alamo for his brother’s most ardent supporters. As to policy? Who needs it? Selley Doug also won’t engender sympathy simply by virtue of being attacked, as Rob did. He’s perfectly in control; he’s not morbidly over- weight; he can string a sentence together, albeit not one you’d likely want to hear. So while his anger will appeal to the angry — people who really do think city hall is a massive conspiracy to screw over the little guy — I suspect the persecution complex won’t carry over. And that’s a key element of the Ford phenomenon, because it gives supporters licence to keep backing him when they know they really shouldn’t. How much attention your average Ford voter pays is key: some might be perfectly happy to project their love of Rob into an unexamined Doug. But the polls suggest not enough. Goldsbie Doug has clearly been paying close attention to what’s worked for Rob and has co-opted those strategies for himself. A typical metaphor might describe such awkward appropriation as an ill-fitting suit, but the literal issue here is the opposite: Doug wishes he looked as uncomfortably done up as Rob. Selley Aping Rob is an odd way to go, considering where Rob found himself in the polls before having to drop out. No one could quite imagine how he’d rebuild sufficient support as himself — it’s tough to imagine how Doug could by trying to be Rob. But we’d be quite mad to count him out. Beyond each candidate’s core support, it doesn’t really seem there’s much of substance underpinning the poll numbers. It’s not hard to see them shifting in ways he hadn’t foreseen, in the same way the campaign thus far hasn’t unfolded the way we had foreseen. And let’s face it — as wacky outcomes go, Doug Ford as mayor isn’t any more ridiculous than Rob Ford as mayor. It’s probably slightly less!