NDP leads in key Toronto riding, poll suggests

Close race pits former Much-Music veejay against journalist

The Liberal party is competitive in several critical races in Ontario, but faces a challenge in the Toronto riding of University-Rosedale where Liberal MP Chrystia Freeland is trailing the NDP’s Jennifer Hollett, a new poll for Postmedia suggests.

The survey, which was conducted by Mainstreet Research Sept. 28-29, polled residents of six Ontario ridings where the Liberals are in a close race with the Conservatives or the New Democrats.

Although the Liberal party has overtaken the NDP nationally in recent days, what happens in Ontario, which holds 121 of 338 seats in the next Parliament, will likely decide whether it takes power.

“This election is going to boil down to all the regional races,” says Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.

The policies of the Ontario Liberals — particularly, the sale of Hydro One, the new sexual education curriculum and labour disputes with teachers — may determine the outcome in ridings “where it’s going to be decided by very few votes,” adds Maggi.

One of the closest Toronto races is in University-Rosedale, a redistricted riding in which there is a strong NDP base.

With 37 per cent of decided voters, the NDP’s Jennifer Hollett, a former Much-Music VJ, is ahead of the incumbent, Liberal MP Chrystia Freeland, an award-winning journalist,

This election is going to boil down to all the regional

races

who has 31 per cent. There is even a chance of the Tories’ Karim Jivraj winning, says Maggi.

Meanwhile, Brampton East is shaping up as one of the tightest races in the Greater Toronto Area. The Liberals and Conservative are deadlocked here, each with the support of 31 per cent of decided voters. The NDP candidate lags with 21 per cent.

But the Conservatives have one thing the other parties don’t: many loyal voters. In Brampton East, 85 per cent of decided Tory voters said they were strong party supporters. In contrast, 52 per cent of decided Liberal voters and 57 per cent of decided NDP voters said the same.

“When it’s so tight, the strength of that vote is hard to overcome,” says Maggi.

In the Ottawa suburbs, the Liberals have a six-percentage-point lead on the Conservatives in Orleans, where retired general Andrew Leslie is running against incumbent Conservative MP Royal Galipeau. However, 22 per cent of voters say they are undecided.

Scarborough Southwest, where former Toronto police chief Bill Blair faces NDP incumbent Dan Harris, is another close contest. Forty per cent of voters said they had decided on or were leaning toward the Liberals, while 37 per cent said the same of the NDP.

The Liberals also have an edge on the Conservatives in Don Valley West, a GTA riding where former Liberal MP Rob Oliphant is looking to reclaim his seat and has the support of 41 per cent of decided voters.

The Conservatives are in the lead in Chatham-Kent-Leamington, where incumbent Dave Van Kesteren has 36 per cent of the decided vote. But 21 per cent remain undecided and Conservative support is lower than expected.