THE RUSSIANS ARE HERE

Russia’s incursion in Syria on behalf of the Assad regime has altered the geopolitical calculus in the Middle East, though to what extent it has undermined U.S. influence remains to be seen. The National Post’s Joe Hood and Alia Dharssi break down the si

TURKEY NATO member Turkey potentially has the most to lose from the chaos in Syria. It has long sought the end of the Assad regime, and was even accused of hampering the West’s early efforts to confront ISIL in Kobani because it was a potential rival to Assad. At a crossroads between Russia, the West and the Middle East, Turkey now has Russian fighter jets taking off on bombing runs just miles from its southern border. Turkey’s main concern appears to be that border area, where it is already engaged with Kurdish rebels. On Thursday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey would not accept “a one-sided ‘fait accompli’ situation” there — suggesting it wants a say in what transpires in northern Syria.

ISRAEL In the early stages, uncertainty is the enemy for Israel. Long able to act with impunity in Syria to disrupt weapons shipments to Hezbollah, Israel must now ensure it avoids direct conflict with Russian forces. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow late last month to work out a plan to avoid such a scenario. The presence of Iranian troops inside Syria, and the potential that Russia may provide more powerful anti-aircraft systems to the Assad regime, posing a long-term threat, are also concerns.

SAUDI ARABIA The main U.S. ally in the region and Iran’s biggest rival, Saudi Arabia has backed Sunni rebel groups battling to overthrow the Assad regime and has been vocal in calling for a halt to Russia’s airstrikes. Saudi Arabia was the largest importer of weapons in the world in 2014, and a stronger Shiite axis in the region would be unlikely to curb its appetite.

SYRIA The most obvious beneficiary of Russia’s enhanced military presence is the Assad regime itself. Under fire from both rebels and ISIL, the regime has been driven back into a sliver of the country in Assad’s Alawite stronghold on the coast and around Damascus. Any hopes of surviving Syria’s four-year civil war now rest on Russia’s backing, though even that may not be enough — Russia may ultimately cede to western demands that Assad be removed, and hope to hold sway over his successor.

IRAQ Based on religion, Iraq’s post-Saddam Shiite governments fall into natural alliance with Iran and, to a lesser extent, Syria (Assad is part of the Alawite sect, which is a splinter form of Shiism). So far, Iraq has not officially opened the door to Russian airstrikes in its territory, but President Haider Al-Abadi said Thursday he would “welcome” more help in the fight against ISIL, amid increased grumblings that the U.S. is not doing enough. Iraq’s involvement in an intelligence-sharing arrangement with Russia, Iran and Syria — which some reported came as a surprise to Washington — further raises the prospect of Iraq being pushed into Moscow’s orbit.

IRAN Fresh from signing a controversial deal to curb its nuclear program, Iran also stands to gain. Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds Force, reportedly met with senior Russian officials in Moscow in July, despite being the subject of a UN travel ban, leading to speculation about the level of co-ordination between the two countries. Soleimani has already been photographed leading Iraqi troops against ISIL in Iraq, and there have been reports that Iranian ground troops will soon be fighting in Syria. Russia’s backing could help Iran deepen its influence over Shiite powers in the region — Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah.