Wynne needs to reconnect with voters

Ontario premier could use a little federal help, too

As Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne looks for ways to reverse her government’s painful unpopularity, she might want to grab a car and head to a coffee shop somewhere along the highway between Kingston and London. With luck she might just run into her old friend the prime minister, who chose Ontario to launch his cross- country journey to re- connect with Canadians.

Ensconced in a booth with some dark roast and a couple of crullers, Wynne could share the fact she badly needs some reconnecting herself. The polls have her deeper in the water than Sir John Franklin’s abandoned ships. Nothing wins over voters like evidence the government has some faint inkling of the difficulty they have making ends meet, and a little aid from Ottawa might help Wynne’s Liberals escape the deep hole they’ve dug themselves in a decade-plus of exuberant borrowing.

Specifically, they need a break on health care. Wynne’s Liberals have made a great show of the effort they’ve put into containing health care costs, wading enthusiastically into a confrontation with doctors that ended in a draw and left neither side looking impressive. The government has pledged to continue the squeeze, keeping health spending to an average increase of 1.7 per cent a year, less than projected economic growth, as it tries to finally present a balanced budget in time for next year’s election.

But a report this week from the province’s Financial Accountability Office indicated it won’t reach that target: the FAO, which has a habit of poking holes in the Liberals’ sunny- side- up financial forecasts, predicted t he government would have to cut $ 400 million by March, when the fiscal year ends, and another $ 2.4 billion over the next two years to achieve its goals.

That’s an enormous sum for a government that made its reputation on spending rather than cutting. The Liberals have delivered nine straight deficits, and are busy selling off power resources as they strive to paper over their record in time for the election. They are already embroiled in a dispute with auditor- general Bonnie Lysyk over an accounting charge that would add $1.5 billion to last year’s declared deficit.

The health squeeze is the reason Wynne continues to rail against Ottawa’s plan to limit increases in health care transfers to 3.5 per cent a year rather than the six per cent Ontario and other provinces claim is their due. Though the offer from federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau is double Ontario’s targeted spending increase, Ontario anticipated billions more in unencumbered transfers it could use to help ease other pressures. Even at historically low interest rates, Ontario’s debt service costs are the third largest i tem in i ts budget, after health care and public education.

Though Morneau has offered billions more for home c are and mental health, the money would be tied to those areas rather than made available to spend as provinces see fit. The provincial demand for open- ended commitments of six per cent annual increases is “out of the realm of anything that we would consider,” Morneau said in December.

Which l eaves Ontario with an unpromising prospect. During last year’s federal election, Trudeau and Wynne struck up a mighty friendship, praising and embracing one another at every opportunity. Ontarians were told the dark days of Stephen Harper, who skipped premiers’ get- togethers and wouldn’t return Wynne’s phone calls, were over. A new, open and collaborative relationship would help set the province right.

But that was before Ottawa set off on its own spending spree, which has seen Morneau’s deficit forecasts abandoned after barely one year in office. Trudeau initially pledged a balanced budget by 2019, but figures released over the holiday break showed deteriorating conditions could result in federal deficits for decades to come.

Wynne would probably like to have Trudeau by her side again when re- election time arrives next year, if his popularity continues to hold up. She’d probably be even happier with a big fat federal cheque she could use to balance the books.

Unfortunately, two governments deep in negative spending territory rarely adds up to a positive. But who knows … Trudeau might at least pay for her coffee.

WYNNE WOULD PROBABLY LIKE TO HAVE TRUDEAU BY HER SIDE AGAIN WHEN RE-ELECTION TIME ARRIVES.