Trump uncertainty presents opportunity

EDC economist says extreme change unlikely

OTTAWA• A well-known trade expert is pitching the counter- intuitive idea that widespread uncertainty tied to president- elect Donald Trump’s protectionist vows has likely created a once- ina-lifetime investment opportunity for companies.

Export Development Canada’s Peter Hall says he’s been advising business leaders to consider swooping in on investment opportunities here and abroad while others sit idle from fear over the trade and tax changes being floated in the U.S.

The economist admits it’s risky, but argues that American trade policy will stay closer to the status quo than what has been discussed by Trump’s incoming administration.

He said Trump’s tax and tariff proposals may not survive because they would likely lead to immediate price increases for American consumers, while their broader economic benefits may take several years to kick in.

Hall said his recommendation has been well received by executives and boards of directors at some very prominent Canadian companies, though he acknowledges he’s unaware of any firms that have made big moves since the U.S. election.

He says the timing is also right because the world economy is strengthening on its own and notes that there’s pent- up demand in the U.S. and Western Europe.

A Liberal cabinet minister attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, however, was getting a different kind of message.

Economic Development Minister Navdeep Bains said he’s hearing concerns from automakers about negative effects on their industry from a Trump presidency. He said he’s had conversations with concerned automakers at the recent Detroit auto show and during his current visit to Davos.

“It became very clear we have such integrated economies that there’s no better example than the auto sector,” Bains said in an interview Thursday from Davos.

“Any kind of disruption to that, any kind of impact to the border would have a negative consequence to both Canada and the U.S .,” he added.

“It’s very clear to myself when I speak to business leaders here in Davos, when I met with automotive executives and business leaders in Detroit, having open borders benefits both Canada and the U.S.”