How backup goalies can make the difference

Playoff teams have stronger second-stringers

Mike Babcock could stomach a 3-2 loss to the Minnesota Wild. After all, it was Jhonas Enroth’s first game as a Toronto Maple Leaf. And he grinned and bore a 5-1 defeat to the New York Islanders later in October.

But after six appearances, 18 conceded goals and zero wins, the coach had seen enough.

From his Oct. 20 debut through his Dec. 5 assignment to the AHL to the Jan. 11 trade that sent him to the Anaheim Ducks, Enroth’s poor play touched off a spate of handwringing over Toronto’s backup goaltending. Could Karri Ramo, the NHL veteran signed to a minor- league tryout after Enroth’s demotion, be counted on to relieve Frederik Andersen? Antoine Bibeau, up from the Toronto Marlies? Curtis McElhinney, plucked from the waiver wire on Jan. 10?

The handwringing was not unwarranted. No. 2 goalies typically don’t play much; Bibeau and McElhinney have combined for just three starts since Enroth was exiled. But in any given season, a backup’s performance can thrust a bubble team into the playoffs — or tank that team’s chances.

“If there’s a bump in the road or a guy goes down with a groin i njury, you need someone that can give you games,” retired NHL backup Jamie McLennan told Postmedia’s Michael Traikos in December.

“Even two weeks is eight games. That can be the difference between the playoffs or not.”

The numbers say McLennan is right.

In the 10 f ull seasons since the 2004- 05 lockout*, teams that finished ninth in their conference missed the playoffs by an average of two points.

Their primary backup — the goalie with the secondmost minutes played — posted a .903 save percentage, a 2.90 goals against average and a - 1.90 goals saved above average**, compared to .907, 2.78 and -1.60 from backups on eighthplace teams.

On average, the eighthplace backups also won two more games.

The statistical gap between eighth and ninth is small, but in a playoff race, so is the margin of error. Ultimately, the correlation is clear: Teams that narrowly creep into the post- season t end to have a stronger backup goalie than teams that fall just short.

To whom are backup goalies important?

This season? All of Canada. Ottawa’s Mike Condon has taken the starter’s reins in the absence of Craig Anderson, whose wife is fighting cancer.

Calgary’s Chad Johnson has played better — and, consequently, appeared in more games — than nominal No. 1 Brian Elliott. On Cam Talbot’s rare days off, Edmonton is hoping call- up Laurent Brossoit can prosper where veteran backup Jonas Gustavsson faltered.

Each of those teams, plus the Leafs, Winnipeg Jets and Vancouver Canucks, are jostling for inclusion in the playoffs, and figure to be as the season nears its end. And while the Montreal Canadiens seem secure, that could change rather quickly, like last season, if Carey Price gets hurt.

HOW ARE BACKUPS IMPORTANT?

In the NHL’s last 10 82- game seasons, the three main stats considered — s ave percentage, goalsagainst average and goals saved above average — fell sequentially along the playoff- bubble spectrum. Backups on seventh- place teams tended to perform at a rate just below average. Eighthplace backups were marginally worse, followed by those whose teams finished ninth and 10th.

The most instruct ive comparison from these four groups is of eighth- and 10thplace goalies, since they finished, on average, with similar workloads: 1,378 minutes played for the eighth-placers ( about 23 full games) and 1,441 minutes for the 10thplacers (about 24 full games). That amounts to slightly more than a quarter-season, in which eighth- place backups posted a -1.60 GSAA and 10th-placers finished at -7.91

Ninth-place backups played far less than the other groups, averaging out at 1,052 minutes a season ( just under 18 games). Goalies whose teams edged into the playoffs played more and fared slightly, crucially better, while 10thplace goalies played more and were considerably worse.

These distinctions suggest many teams who barely missed the playoffs in the last decade were hurt by one of two things: a backup who couldn’t be trusted to spell the starter very often, or a backup in over his head who played too much.

* 2005- 06 to 2015-16, excluding lockout- shortened 2012-13

** Number of goals prevented in a season compared to a league- average goalie, shown as a plus- minus figure and standardized for shot volume