TRUMP IMMIGRATION POLICY COULD HURT OIL INDUSTRY

Donald Trump’s new immigration policies could have a meaningful impact on global energy markets, as three key OPEC countries are included in the travel restrictions.

Iraq, Iran and Libya together produce almost nine million barrels of oil per day, and the impact from the U. S. president’s controversial order could play out in very different ways for each country.

Helima Croft at RBC Capital Markets noted that in Iraq, U.S. energy companies that employ Americans could face challenges if a parliamentary measure calling for reciprocal restrictions becomes law.

The decision will ultimately be left to Prime Minister Abadi, but so far, the tone has been negative from Iraq’s executive branch. The Foreign Ministry expressed “regret and astonishment” and asked the White House to reconsider.

Croft noted that leading Iraq experts doubt Abadi will risk hurting his relationship with the U.S. military or foreign oil companies, yet there are power political players with close links to Iran that could push the prime minister to take a tougher stance.

If Abadi does choose to enact the parliamentary measure, Croft expects it would prevent American employees of oil and service companies from entering the country. “Actual production would probably be unaffected given the heavy reliance on local staff for day-to-day operations,” the strategist said, adding that the U.S. military may find itself short of American contractors to assist with the anti-ISIL effort.

Iran was quick to announce a reciprocal travel ban, stating that the new restrictions are an “affront against the Muslim world and the Iranian nation in particular”. …