National Post

FAVOURITES

WHO SHOULD WIN — AND WHO WILL WIN — HEADING INTO HOLLYWOOD’S BIGGEST NIGHT.

- Chris Knight

In the 88 years of the Academy Awards there have been only six ties — three if you ignore those involving short films, and that time that Zero Dark Thirty and Skyfall split the vote for best sound editing.

The really big ones were a tie between Fredric March and Wallace Beery for best actor of 1932; a dead heat in 1987 between documentar­y features Artie Shaw: Time Is All You’ve Got and Down and Out in America; and the best known, when Barbra Streisand ( Funny Girl) and Katharine Hepburn ( The Lion in Winter) each received 3,030 votes for best actress of 1969.

But if there were ever a year when the best- picture race deserved to end in a photo finish, it’s this one. How to choose between the neo-musical joyride that is La La Land, and an important, timely tale of race and sexuality like Moonlight? Each is superb, yet in such different ways.

If you’re this critic, you think outside the box — and off the planet — and choose Arrival, a stunningly original take on some very big ideas by Denis Villeneuve. But I’ve never won the office Oscar pool, and no science- fiction story, from 2001: A Space Odyssey to The Martian, has ever won best picture.

So pick the one that has already won seven Golden Globes, four BAFTAs, eight Critics’ Choice awards, the Toronto festival’s People’s Choice Award, and accolades from the producers, directors and screen actors guilds. That would be La La Land. And count on its director, Damien Chazelle, to pick up the trophy as well, although I’d argue that Villeneuve did the better job. But it’s sci- fi; c’est la vie.

Here’s who should win, and who ( probably) will, in the rest of the Oscar races.

Best actor: This category actually has the best chance of a tie, between Denzel Washington’s angry old man in Fences and Casey Affleck’s sombre, younger one in Manchester by the Sea. Give the prize to Washington, but know that Affleck deserves it. Understate­d is always harder to pull off than bombastic.

Best actress: Emma Stone is the favourite, having picked up almost every prize in the category to date. And you know what? She deserves it!

Best supporting actor: Mahershala Ali is easily the strongest in a category that includes such workhorses as Michael Shannon (10 credits for 2016, including a great turn in Midnight Special) and Jeff Bridges ( seven acting nomination­s stretching back to 1972). Those two should tie for second place, but the Oscar should and likely will go to Ali.

Best supporting actress: This is an easy one to call, but for all the wrong reasons. Viola Davis won a Tony for playing this role in Fences on Broadway, but it wasn’t for a supporting role — because this isn’t one. It’s a leading part, equal to that of her co-star, Washington. She’ll take the Oscar, but among the “real” supporting roles, I’d pick the nuanced work of either Nicole Kidman in Lion, or Michelle Williams in Manchester By the Sea.

Best writing: “Adapted” screenplay­s are always an odd lot. This year’s include Moonlight, based on an unproduced play; Fences, based on a 1987 Tony-winner ( and a 2010 best revival Tony- winner); Arrival, loosely based on a short story; Lion, based on an autobiogra­phy; and Hidden Figures, based on a non-fiction book. ( Also Hidden Fences, based on a slip of the tongue.) Moonlight will probably take the prize, but read Ted Chiang’s Story of Your Life, the basis for Arrival, to see why the script is such a masterpiec­e of page-to-screen transfigur­ation.

In the original screenplay category, Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester By the Sea is primed to win. But for sheer literary exuberance that pops off the screen, it’s hard to beat Taylor Sheridan’s Hell or High Water.

Best animated: Among the nominated f eatures, Oscar f ront- runner Zootopia was tops at the box office and has also picked up a slew of prizes. But it’s also the safest, most traditiona­l of the bunch. Moana, Kubo and the Two Strings and The Red Turtle all push the envelope in different ways. Not sure about the fifth nominee, My Life as a Zucchini, which no one seems to have seen.

For animated short, the prize will probably go to Pixar’s Piper, which screened alongside Finding Dory last summer. But the Canadian entry, Blind Vaysha, is a beautiful and original fable.

Best documentar­y: O. J.: Made in America is actually a TV miniseries, but a brief theatrical run made it Oscar- eligible, and the pundits are calling for it to win. I’ ll recuse myself from a pick here, as I’ve not seen it, nor Ava DuVernay’s 13th, about the huge numbers of blacks in prison in America.

In the short doc category, The White Helmets, about Syrian volunteers who rescue victims of bombings, looks like a worthy contender. And for live-action short, the weird parking-lot romance in Timecode could take the prize, but don’t count out La Femme ET le TGV, about a woman who falls for the high- speed train engineer who races past her house at more than 200 km/h each day.

Best foreign- language film: The last time a comedy won in this category was 14 years ago, with Denys Arcand’s The Barbarian Invasions. Toni Erdmann, from Germany’s Maren Ade, could well be the next; this delightful film also deserves the win.

Best score: La La Land, the only musical among the nominees, seems the natural to take the Oscar, and why not? For best song, La La actually has two nomination­s, for City of Stars (sung by Ryan Gosling) and The Fools Who Dream (by Emma Stone). City will probably win, but if the songs split the vote, I’d argue that How Far I’ ll Go from Moana and Can’t Stop the Feeling from Trolls are worthy picks. Good luck getting either one out of your head once you hear it.

The rest: La La Land could potentiall­y pick up six more awards in the technical categories, where it’s nominated for cinematogr­aphy, costumes, film editing, production design, sound editing and sound design. But why not share the glory? Arrival has stunning cinematogr­aphy and sound work; Fantastic Beasts featured fantastic costumes; Hell or High Water was an editing masterpiec­e; Hail, Caesar had beautiful production values.

And may I suggest Star Trek Beyond for hair and makeup, and Rogue One for visual effects? Science- fiction may continue to be shut out of the top categories, but when it comes to making bumpy- headed aliens and seven- foottall droids, La La Land can’t hold a candle to the genre.

 ??  ??
 ?? FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP / GETTY IMAGES ?? Although he admittedly has never won the office Oscar pool, Post film critic Chris Knight has some prediction­s on who will win at the 89th Academy Awards, which will be handed out in Hollywood on Sunday.
FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP / GETTY IMAGES Although he admittedly has never won the office Oscar pool, Post film critic Chris Knight has some prediction­s on who will win at the 89th Academy Awards, which will be handed out in Hollywood on Sunday.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Canada