NFL draft is a guessing game
With the NFL draft two weeks away, the term “can’tmiss prospect” gets dragged out and t hrown around like a passenger off an overbooked United flight.
The term is a misnomer. They’re all CAN- miss prospects. Even at the top of the draft.
As proof, let’s examine the top half of the first round of the 2012 draft class. That’s a timely year to examine, seeing as the last of the 2012 first- rounders’ contracts expired last month.
You might be shocked to learn only five of the top-16 picks in 2012 remain on the clubs that drafted them. Of the other 11, one was traded away, five signed elsewhere upon becoming free agents ( including two on one- year “prove it” deals) and five are out of work.
Three of the top five picks proved flat-out busts.
Let’s apply HIT or MISS tags to the top-10 picks, in the order they were drafted on April 26, 2012:
1. Andrew Luck, QB, Indian
apolis Colts: HIT. Labelled by many as the best passing prospect since John Elway, Luck has proven good, sometimes even great. But not all- time great. He’s not even a top-5 QB, and shouldn’t he have achieved that status by now? Regardless, the Colts re- signed Luck last year to a US$ 123- million, five- year deal. And 15-20 other teams would kill to have him. 2. Robert Griffin III, QB, Wash
ington Redskins: MISS. To be fair, he dazzled as a rookie until blowing out his right knee in a wild- card playoff game. RG3 hasn’t come close to repeating his dynamic play since. Washington and Cleveland both cut him in the past 14 months. Today he’s looking for work. 3. Trent Richardson, RB,
Cleveland Browns: MISS. An immediate bust — and the Browns traded up to select him. Richardson rushed for 950 yards as a rookie, but on 267 carries ( a 3.6- yard average). After two games in Year 2, the Browns traded him to Indy, where he looked and performed even worse. His last NFL carry was in 2014. 4. Matt Kalil, OT, Minnesota
Vikings: HIT. But a lukewarm hit. Kalil seldom grades out well according to the analytics crowd. More telling is when a team that drafts you that high, at so vital a position, doesn’t move heaven and earth to re- sign you. The Vikings didn’t last month. Kalil instead signed in Carolina for US$ 56 million over five years. 5. Justin Black mon, WR,
Jacksonville Jaguars: MISS. And a massive miss at that. Two months after the Jags drafted him he was arrested for DUI. Nine months later the NFL suspended him four
games for substance abuse. Seven months later, in November 2013, the NFL suspended him indefinitely for the same reason. Blackmon hasn’t suited up since. 6. Morris Claiborne, CB, Dal
l as Cowboys: MISS. Jerry Jones traded up to land Claiborne, seen as the can’t-miss corner in the ’ 12 draft. But in Dallas, Claiborne shut down neither receivers nor unrelenting yet justified criticism that he was unworthy of the lofty pick. He signed a one- year prove it deal last month with the New York Jets for US$5 million. 7. Mark Barron, S/ LB, Tampa
Bay Buccaneers: HIT. Another lukewarm hit. After pick- sixing Tom Brady in his first month as the Bucs’ strong safety, Barron failed to live up to his billing in Tampa and was traded in October 2014 to the then- St. Louis Rams. As a backup the Rams declined his fifth-year option, but in 2015 Barron shone as a weakside linebacker. Last year the Rams gave him a five-year, US$45million extension. 8. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins: MISS. He still hasn’t justified this pick, despite showing flashes of elitism under new QB- whisperer head coach Adam Gase last fall. Because of his oozing potential, the Dolphins two years ago gave Tannehill a US$ 77- million, four- year extension. But the deal offers the club a rip- cord after the coming season. 9. Luke Kuechly, LB, Carolina
Panthers: HIT. If anyone in this bunch has a good shot at heading to Canton, it’s Kuechly, arguably the NFL’s best middle linebacker, although there are concerns concussions might end his career early. The Panthers rewarded him with a US$62million, five-year extension. 10. Stephon Gilmore, CB,
Buffalo Bills: HIT. Another unenthusiastic designation. Gilmore was an enigma in Buffalo, often blanket- covering elite tall receivers but too often struggling to keep up with quick, smurfy types, and too often repeatedly getting burned in big games by ham- and- eggers. Still, Bill Belichick wooed him to New England last month with a US$ 65- million, five- year contract.
If you’ re wondering whether 2012 was an outlier, look at the following year. The top-16 picks in the 2013 draft class by this time next year will have fared even worse.
Four of the top seven are already proven busts. More than half of the 16 ( nine) did not have their fifth- year options picked up and of those, one is out of football and none of the other eight signed elsewhere for more than a pittance. That is some bad drafting. So ... “can’t- miss” prospects? They don’t exist.