Only hard power works with a despot
Aphoto on Syria’s presidential Facebook page on Tuesday showed President Bashar al- Assad grinning widely as he sat in the cockpit of a Sukhoi SU-27 jet during a visit to the Russian- operated Hmeimim military base. He seemed to be in a very good mood.
And why not? After five years of fighting and untold rivers of blood, the bits of the country he controls have expanded to the point he now feels safe enough to travel all the way to Hama, a full 185 km from Damascus, where he attended prayers on Sunday for the Eid alFitr holiday. A year ago Assad was able to go no further than Homs for the occasion. That’s what an additional year of slaughter and barbarity has brought him: about 40 extra kilometres of territory where he can travel without fear of running into well- armed enemies out to topple or kill him.
The map of Syria now looks like someone threw a child’s paint set against a wall and let the colours run. Assad’s government controls a portion up and down the Mediterranean coast around Damascus, connected by a thin corridor to Aleppo, the ruined city regained by the regime at appalling cost late last year. Kurdish forces hold a large swath of the northeast, where the next war may take place over Kurdish independence. ISIL — the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant — continues to survive in areas west of the capital, though it has been steadily losing ground. Various rebel groups dominate pockets to the north and south, while Israel maintains its long hold of the Golan Heights and Turkish- backed fighters dominate a parcel along the Turkish border. Some parts of the country remain for grabs.
As fractured as it may appear, for Assad it’s an improvement over the early years of the war, when Western leaders took turns guaranteeing his downfall and it appeared at times their predictions might come true. If not for the irresolution of the Obama White House, with its reluctance to become too deeply involved in yet another Middle East quagmire and Barack Obama’s retreat from the “red line” against the use of chemical weapons, Assad might not still be around to celebrate his success. He owes much of it to the Russians he visited at Hmeimim, who supplied the weaponry and manpower needed to reverse the tide that was running against him.
To hold onto his shreds of authority, Assad has accepted Syria’s new status as a client state of Russian President Vladimir Putin, just as Soviet bloc countries used to bow to Moscow during the Cold War. He has contributed to a death toll estimated as high as 400,000, tens of thousands of wounded, the displacement of more than six million people within Syria and the flight of five million more in search of peace elsewhere. Though Moscow and Damascus deny it, Assad’s regime is widely believed to have used chemical weapons and barrel bombs against civilians. The Trump administration, less tentative in its policy than its predecessor, launched 59 cruise missiles in response to a gas attack two months ago, and warned Monday it had detected signs that another chemical attack was being prepared, warning that Assad would pay “a heavy price” should it go ahead.
But how heavy a price could Washington extract? More deaths? Ruined i nfrastructure? International condemnation? Assad has made clear he is impervious to the toll of his actions. Russia continues to prop up his regime, while Iran fires missiles at ISIL targets in Syria and warns the U.S. it is “playing with fire” by making threats to Assad. Russia’s foreign minister said Moscow would respond “proportionally and with dignity” to any U. S. provocation, increasing fears that Washington and Moscow are heading towards an inevitable showdown over the conflict.
That might suit all the main parties. President Donald Trump could use a diversion to draw attention away from the many troubles besetting his young administration. Putin could once again impress fellow Russians with his refusal to bend to the West’s despised democracies, and Assad could be certain his Russian benefactors would move heaven and earth to keep him in power rather than cede an inch to his enemies.
There may still be adherents to “soft power,” the quaint Canadian notion that despots and dictators can be swayed by reason, that diplomacy is the balm that eases conflict and soothes the road to peace, and that Canada’s natural place in the world is to provide the earnest envoys needed to find common ground between sworn enemies. Despite a tougher tone taken recently by Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland — who has been banned from Russia for having a bad attitude — the Trudeau government continues to pursue a seat on the Security Council on the pretext that the United Nations is the place to deal with such issues and a seat at the big table will add weight to Canada’s voice.
Fat chance. Assad is deaf to loud voices and Moscow has a permanent veto to wield at the UN. It takes muscle, and a willingness to use it, to displace a tyrant as oblivious to suffering as Bashar Assad. He remains a blight on humankind because the powers with the ability to oust him lack his tolerance for blood.
ASSAD IS IMPERVIOUS TO THE TOLL OF HIS ACTIONS.