A FINE LINE TO MAKE PLAYOFFS
FIVE TEAMS WHO CAN GET BACK IN — AND FIVE WHO COULD BE OUT
They say you shouldn’t try to buy a Stanley Cup in free agency — but if you spend your money the right way, you can often buy a berth in the playoffs.
Seven teams ( Columbus, Edmonton, Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary, Boston and Toronto) qualified for the playoffs last season after missing out the year before. While it wasn’t just free agency that pushed the teams over the edge — the Maple Leafs might have been part of the Nico-versusNolan debate had they not drafted Auston Matthews with the No. 1 pick last year — the right signing can be the difference between a season ending early or extending into spring.
Whether it was Toronto beefing up its back end with Nikita Zaitsev, Montreal taking a chance on Alexander Radulov, Edmonton breaking the bank for Milan Lucic or even Calgary adding backup goalie Chad Johnson, free agency played a big role in turning non-playoff teams into contenders.
In each of the last 10 years, about five to seven teams have gone from missing the playoffs to making it. Here are five that could be on their way in, and five on their way out based on their moves over the next week:
FIVE ON THEIR WAY IN 1 N.Y. Islanders Last season: 9th in East, 94 points.
The Islanders finished the season on a high by winning their last six games and nearly sneaking into the playoffs. The team has tried to build on that momentum by acquiring winger Jordan Eberle from the Oilers in exchange for Ryan Strome. While Eberle had a down year in Edmonton, the hope is John Tavares can help him become a 25-goal, 60- point player again. Look for rookies Mathew Barzal and Joshua Ho- Sang to add offensive punch to a lineup that ranked sixth in goals scored last season.
Free agency needs: With the loss of Travis Hamonic, look for the team to add a D-man such as Michael Stone or Dmitry Kulikov.
2 Winnipeg Last season: 9th in West, 87 points
Mark Scheifele is already an established top10 scorer and based on Patrik Laine’s rookie season (36 goals and 64 points in 73 games), Winnipeg could have two players challenging for the Art Ross Trophy next season. A full year of Jacob Trouba and a healthy Tyler Myers will also help the back end. But the big X factor is goaltending. While Calgary, Dallas and even Arizona addressed the most important position in hockey, Winnipeg still has a tandem of Connor Hellebuyck and Michael Hutchinson, who combined for the league’s third-worst save percentage.
Free agency needs: Pick one of Steve Mason, Ryan Miller, Brian Elliott or Jonathan Bernier. Any one of them would be an upgrade.
3 Tampa Bay Last season: 10th in East, 94 points
The Lightning, who were without Steven Stamkos for most of the season, went from conference finalists to missing the playoffs by one point. With their captain healthy — and Nikita Kucherov established as a top-10 scorer — you can pencil the team in for the post- season again. But whether Tampa Bay becomes a Cup contender will hinge on two things: Can goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy handle starting duties now that Ben Bishop is gone, and can rookie Mikhail Sergachev, acquired from Montreal for Jonathan Drouin, immediately become a top-four defenceman?
Free agency needs: Tampa Bay’s primary objective is to re- sign restricted free agents Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. After that, signing either Kevin Shattenkirk or Dan Girardi would prevent having to rush Sergachev.
4 Dallas Last season: 11th in West, 79 points
With Ben Bishop brought in to be their No. 1 goalie and Marc Methot adding experience to a young but talented defence, the Stars have addressed the two biggest holes in their lineup. Having Ken Hitchcock back for a second tenure as head coach should also improve how they play defence. Even with the loss of Patrick Eaves ( 32 goals), look for the Stars to rebound from a forgettable season — in which they finished 30 points below their 2015-16 total — and return once again to the top of the Central Division standings.
Free agency needs: Alexander Radulov could provide another scoring option on the wing, while Justin (Mr. Game 7) Williams is a player all contending teams covet.
5 Arizona Last season: 12th in West, 70 points
After kicking their captain out the door and firing their head coach, the Coyotes were looking like they were going to finish bottom- three once again. But then GM John Chayka acquired goalie Antti Raanta and second- line centre Derek Stepan from the Rangers and beefed up the blue-line by trading for Chicago’s Niklas Hjalmarsson. With Clayton Keller and Dylan Strome expected to compete for a Calder Trophy, things don’t look so barren in the desert.
Free agency needs: With Shane Doan gone, bringing back a veteran such as Radim Vrbata is a priority.
FIVE ON THEIR WAY OUT 1 Chicago Last season: 1st in West, 109 points
A year ago, we predicted the Blackhawks would reach the Stanley Cup final. But then the Predators swept them in the first round. In a strange summer, the team lost Marian Hossa for next season and traded top-10 scorer Artemi Panarin and top- pairing defenceman Niklas Hjalmarsson in cap-saving moves. Chicago brought back Brandon Saad and acquired defenceman Connor Murphy from Arizona, but they likely won’t be able to replace all that’s been lost, which also includes Trevor van Riemsdyk in the expansion draft. Unless Richard Panik can build off a 22-goal season, expect a regression from the Blackhawks. Free agency needs: Some money might be coming off the cap because of Hossa’s injury. If so, bringing back 35-year-old Patrick Sharp on a one-year deal might make sense.
2 Ottawa Last season: 6th in East, 98 points
The Senators defied expectations and not only made the playoffs, but came within one win of reaching the Stanley Cup final. Yet, with the loss of top-pairing defenceman Marc Methot, it’s not hard to imagine the team taking a step back and missing out next season. The Senators know what they are getting from Erik Karlsson, but are less sure what to expect from top prospect Thomas Chabot, who will be leaned on to help replace Methot’s minutes.
Free agency needs: Asking Chabot to log 22 minutes a night as a rookie might be unrealistic, so the Senators would be wise to get help on the back end, even if it’s someone like Alexei Emelin or Trevor Daley.
3 Boston Last season: 7th in East, 95 points
Zdeno Chara, who is 40 years old, logged close to 29 minutes per game last season. Had they needed him to, he would have logged 39 minutes. It’s not ideal, of course. Neither is going into the season believing that 19- year- old rookie Charlie McAvoy will fit seamlessly into Boston’s top-four defence. But that’s the hope, if not the expectation, in Boston, where the Bruins might have missed the playoffs last season if not for the jolt brought on by a mid- season coaching change. This year, it might be time to turn the page. Free agency needs: Kevin Shattenkirk is not a perfect defenceman, but he would solve a lot of problems for the Bruins, especially where the power play is concerned.
4 San Jose Last season: 6th in West, 99 points
The Joe Thornton- Patrick Marleau era in San Jose could be coming to an end, and with it, so could a guaranteed playoff spot. Even if both players re-sign with the Sharks, their impact is declining. It’s why Brent Burns, who led the team with 29 goals and 76 points, was relied on so much last season. The Sharks need their younger players, such as Tomas Hertl ( 10 goals and 22 points) to step up and assume bigger roles.
Free agency needs: San Jose might be able to sneak into the playoffs if Thornton and Marleau come back for one more year. Another option is Sam Gagner, who is coming off an 18-goal, 50-point season in Columbus.
5 N.Y. Rangers Last season: 5th in East, 102 points
The King is not dead, but his reign might be coming to an end. With a 2.74 goals- against average and a .910 save percentage, Henrik Lundqvist had the worst numbers of his career. He is 35 years old and is now performing without a safety net after backup goalie Antti Raanta was shipped to Arizona in a deal that also saw the Rangers lose centre Derek Stepan. The Rangers have resigned defenceman Brendan Smith, but with an aging roster — Rick Nash is 33 and failed to reach 40 points for a second consecutive season — their seven-year run of making the playoffs could be coming to an end.
Free agency needs: It would be a stopgap at best, but signing free agent Joe Thornton might buy New York another season.