Decade of success, failures
After nearly a decade as premier, Brad Wall has announced his intention to resign as soon as the governing Saskatchewan Party can choose a successor. Since taking over the Sask Party in 2003 ( f ollowing a disappointing election the party had been expected to win), Wall has enjoyed nothing but success. Under his leadership, the Sask Party has won three large majorities in a row, in 2007, 2011 and 2016, and Wall has had sky- high approval ratings. Arguably, he has been one of the country’s most successful conservative politicians of the last 30 years, which explains why he was widely touted as a potential successor to Stephen Harper. But his resignation comes at a time when things are beginning to look challenging for his government. And, unfortunately, much of the damage is self-inflicted.
Since unveiling a harsh austerity budget in t he spring of 2017, support for Wall’s government has fallen to an eight- year low. An Insightrix poll this spring still had the Sask Party leading province- wide over the opposition ( and currently leaderless) NDP, 44 to 40 per cent, but behind in both Regina and Saskatoon. And in May, a poll by Mainstreet Research actually had the NDP leading province- wide, 49 to 40 per cent. By comparison, in the 2016 election, the Sask Party received 62 per cent of the popular vote.
Created by a coalition of Liberal and Progressive Conservative MLAs who wanted a party that offered a free enterprise alternative, the Sask Party has traditionally hewed close to the centre- right. Now, the party appears to be firmly in the hands of its more hardline conservative elements. This year’s budget was a clear indication of the party’s new direction, which seems to have inadvertently stripped the Teflon off both Wall and his party.
Faced with low resource prices, stagnant growth and burgeoning debts and deficits, the Sask Party rolled out a fiscal agenda straight from the conservative playbook. Tax cuts for high income earners and corporations were combined with cuts to municipalities, libraries, schools, universities and social spending. The province raised the provincial sales tax and applied it more broadly. This was packaged as part of a threeyear plan to balance the budget.
The public was not im- pressed. Even conservatives, it turns out, don’t love austerity budgets. Protests led the government to reverse the cuts to libraries, but it went ahead with other aspects of its austerity plan. This included the elimination of the provincial bus service, the Sask Transportation Corporation ( STC), a Crown corporation that pro- vided subsidized travel and freight services.
Only a few of STC’s routes generated enough revenue to cover the cost of the ser- vice. But for many people living and working in tiny communities across t he province ( and especially in the north), STC was an i mportant l i nk to l arger centres. It was how busi- nesses shipped and received goods. It was how rural cancer patients got to and from chemo appointments. It was how the libraries shipped i nterlibrar y l oans. The closure of the service was done without any apparent thought given to how those needs would be met.
To make matters worse, the government has been dogged by questions of shady land deals it made around a transportation infrastructure project west of Regina, and overspending on a major highway project. Additionally, the province’s economic news is not inspiring. In 2017, Saskatchewan will have the lowest growth of the four western provinces, and unemployment is above the national average for the first time since 1989.
On social media and in the press, the affable and popular premier has i ncreasingly been seen to be heading a government that is some mixture of incompetent and heartless. Stories of cancer patients being potentially unable to access services, or the government no longer paying for funerals for low- income residents, did not square with the Sask Party’s well- crafted image. Government s t onewalling with regard to the land deals brought out comparisons to the scandals that had plagued the Conservative government of Grant Devine.
Wall’s attempts to deflect the anger onto Ottawa’s evil carbon tax or unfair equalization program have not diffused the discontent. The unpopularity of federal policies among Saskatchewan voters did not make unpopular provincial policies any more palatable.
Things will l i kely be tough for the new leader. Though the party is still strong in rural areas, there may be no safe seats in Regina or Saskatoon if the NDP can hold onto their newfound support.
This c ould make t he s mall urban c entres of Moose Jaw, Yorkton and Prince Albert the key battlegrounds in 2020.
Of course, the next elect i on is years away, and Wall’s early departure will give a new leader plenty of time to turn things around. But amidst all the congratulatory talk of Wall’s successful decade as premier, it also has to be admitted that he was the one that led them to their current state.
THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN DOGGED BY QUESTIONS OF SHADY LAND DEALS.